542
FXUS66 KMFR 080502
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1002 PM PDT SUN JUN 7 2026
..AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED
DISCUSSION
HIGH CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND THE NEXT
INCOMING SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOUT 7 DEGREES WARMER
TONIGHT DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD AND THICKER NATURE OF THE CLOUD
COVER. EVENTUALLY, THAT FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON SHORE MONDAY MORNING,
ALTHOUGH NOT A LOT OF PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL ARRIVE WITH THE SURFACE LOW
HITTING THE COAST AROUND MID DAY MONDAY. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO MOST LOCATIONS
THROUGH MONDAY, EXCEPT MODOC COUNTY DURING THE DAY.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATION WILL VARY WIDELY LIKE USUAL WITH AROUND
1.5 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY NEAR THE BROOKINGS AREA AND 0.5 INCHES
ALONG OTHER PORTIONS OF THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE
CASCADES. WE'RE EXPECTING AROUND 0.1 INCHES HERE IN MEDFORD
THROUGH TUESDAY. RAIN LIKE THIS ISN'T THAT ATYPICAL FOR EARLY
JUNE, AND WE WON'T BE SETTING PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR OUR
CLIMATE SITES ON MONDAY.
EVENTUALLY, A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THIS LOW EASTWARDS AND PUSH
THROUGH THE COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LOOK FAIRLY INTERESTING WITH SOME CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE
POTENTIAL ENERGY(CAPE) MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING OVER KRBG,
ALTHOUGH THE CAPE IS VERY SHALLOW DUE TO SOME RELATIVELY WARMER
AIR AND STABLE AIR ALOFT. SO ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL BE
LIGHT AND QUITE SHALLOW ON TUESDAY.
THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN BRIEFLY BY TUESDAY
EVENING WITH THE GFS PLACING A 1023 MB MSLP HIGH IN SOUTH WESTERN
OREGON. A THERMAL TROUGH STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FROM ALONG THE
SOUTH WESTERN PORTION OF OUR COAST, BASICALLY AROUND BROOKINGS,
ALTHOUGH IT DOESN'T HAVE MUCH NORTHWARD EXTENT INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS WE'VE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. END RESULT WILL BE SOME
WARMING TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
THE LAST THING THAT CAUGHT OUR EYE IN THE FORECAST IS BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLIDING DOWN THE
CASCADES SATURDAY OR SUNDAY WITH SOME EAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS OVER OUR CASCADES. AFTER DOING SOME SPAGHETTI AND CLUSTER
ANALYSIS ON THE 500MB HEIGHTS, WE THINK THIS SCENARIO HAS A 30%
CHANCE OF HAPPENING. OTHER SOLUTIONS SHOW A STRONGER RIDGE IN
PLACE, WHICH WILL STILL PUSH TEMPERATURES HIGHER FOR LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE CASCADES. OVERALL, THE TAKE HOME IMPACTS WILL BE
INCREASING HEAT AND FIRE WEATHER THREATS NEXT WEEKEND.
-SMITH
AVIATION...08/06Z TAFS
TONIGHT, INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BRING
RAIN, BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS, AND A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO
THE COAST BEGINNING AROUND 12Z MONDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL SPREAD
INLAND TO THE CASCADES DURING THE MORNING WITH AREAS OF MVFR, LOCAL
IFR, AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS CEILINGS LOWERING
TO MVFR WITH PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES STARTING AROUND 18Z AT
ROSEBURG. FOR MEDFORD, THERE IS 25-30% CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS
AND/OR VISIBILITIES FROM 19-00Z MONDAY. EAST OF THE CASCADES,
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT, WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND LOCAL IFR CONTINUING WEST
OF THE CASCADES.
MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT SUNDAY, JUNE 7, 2026
THE FIRST
CHANGES WAS TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TODAY FROM PORT
ORFORD SOUTHWARD AND OUT TO 30 NM FROM SHORE WITH STEEP SEAS
EXPECTED DUE TO NEAR ADVISORY STRENGTH NORTHWEST WINDS.
WIND EASE AND TURN SOUTHERLY TONIGHT WITH SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THE IMPROVEMENT WILL BE BRIEF WITH A COLD FRONT BRINGING
GUSTY, STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL OF THE SOUTHERN OREGON
WATERS FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, EXCEPT FOR
VERY STEEP SEAS AND SOUTH WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEEP SEAS MAY
LINGER IN THE OUTER WATERS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH SEAS DOMINATED BY A WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL AT 10 SECONDS.
A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN IS LIKELY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT THE RETURN OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS WITH
STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 11
AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ350-
370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
PZZ350-370.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
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