046
FXUS66 KMFR 081749
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1049 AM PDT MON JUN 8 2026
UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS
AVIATION...08/18Z TAFS
A LATE SEASON SYSTEM IS BRINGING A VARIETY
OF CONDITIONS TO THE REGION TODAY. GENERALLY, MVFR MIXED WITH LOW
END VFR AND WIDESPREAD TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS IS OCCURRING ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH HIGHER CEILINGS/VFR PREVAILING EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN THESE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ALONG
THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO, INCLUDING KOTH, WHERE SURFACE WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST WHILE WINDS ABOUT 2000 FT ARE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 50 KTS. THIS CONCERN EASES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS GUSTY WINDS SURFACE. BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS WELL, BUT WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST.
SHOWERS/PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING,
BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER WELL INTO TUESDAY MORNING. OVERALL,
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE A MIX OF MVFR/LOW END VFR WITH GENERAL CLEARING
EXPECTED AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. /BR-Y
MARINE...UPDATED 800 AM PDT MONDAY, JUNE 8, 2026
A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND
STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS. THE STEEPEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO WHERE SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP TO GALES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS EASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN STEEP FOR ALL AREAS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IMPROVED CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS
DOMINATED BY A WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL AT 10 SECONDS. A THERMAL TROUGH
PATTERN IS LIKELY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. EXPECT THE RETURN OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND WIND DRIVEN SEAS
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS LIKELY
WORSEN FOR ALL AREAS BY THURSDAY, WITH HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 407 AM PDT MON JUN 8 2026/
DISCUSSION...
KEY POINTS:
* RAIN IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN OREGON THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST WITH MOST AREAS SEEING SHOWERS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
* RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE RIDGING TAKES
CONTROL AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN WITH A WARMING TREND.
* RIDGING WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE WEEK, AND MODELS ARE
SHOWING TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH TERRITORY THIS WEEKEND.
SATELLITE SHOWS LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES,
INCLUDING IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. A FEW SHOWERS ARE SPOTTED ON RADAR
AS WELL, MOSTLY IN DOUGLAS COUNTY. RADAR IS ALSO SHOWING A LINE OF
RAIN OFF THE COAST, AND THIS IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE AT THE COAST
BEFORE 5 AM. BY 7-9 AM THE RAIN WILL GET CLOSER TO THE CASCADES,
AND IT WILL START TO BECOME SCATTERED.
THE COAST AND WESTERN JOSEPHINE AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES WILL SEE THE
MOST RAINFALL TODAY BEFORE ALSO SEEING FAVORABLE RAINFALL IN THE
CASCADES INTO THE AFTERNOON. BETWEEN 5 AM TODAY AND THE END OF THE
DAY THE COAST COULD RECEIVE NEAR ~0.50" IN COOS COUNTY WHILE OTHER
COASTAL LOCATIONS (CURRY COUNTY) COULD REACH 1.25"-1.50". FROM
PROSPECT AND NORTH IN THE CASCADES, MONDAY RAIN TOTALS COULD REACH
0.25"-0.50". THE UMPQUA BASIN IS THE WEST SIDE VALLEY MOST FAVORED
TO SEE SOME RAIN, WITH A 65-75% CHANCE TO SEE 0.20". CAPE IS NOT
FAVORABLE IN THIS TIMEFRAME, SO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE BELOW 15%.
THIS FRONT WILL COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO THE 50S/60S ONCE MORE
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH 15-25 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE
COUNTY, IN THE CASCADES, IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES. THESE WINDS WILL STAY THE LONGEST EAST OF THE CASCADES
INTO MONDAY EVENING, AND THIS IS WHEN THE RAIN WILL TURN LIGHTER
AS WELL. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, AND THIS
WILL BE CONCENTRATED ON THE CASCADES AND AREAS WEST.
RIDGING WILL TAKE CONTROL AFTER AS IT REACHES CLOSER TO THE COAST BY
MID-WEEK. NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
MOSTLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES. TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES NEAR 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES (70S/LOW 80S) WEDNESDAY.
-HERMANSEN
LONG TERM...THE LAST THING THAT CAUGHT OUR EYE IN THE FORECAST
IS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLIDING
DOWN THE CASCADES SATURDAY OR SUNDAY WITH SOME EAST WINDS AROUND
10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER OUR CASCADES. AFTER DOING SOME SPAGHETTI AND
CLUSTER ANALYSIS ON THE 500MB HEIGHTS, WE THINK THIS SCENARIO HAS
A 30% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. OTHER SOLUTIONS SHOW A STRONGER RIDGE
IN PLACE, WHICH WILL STILL PUSH TEMPERATURES HIGHER FOR LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE CASCADES. OVERALL, THE TAKE HOME IMPACTS WILL BE
INCREASING HEAT AND FIRE WEATHER THREATS NEXT WEEKEND.
-SMITH
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT TUESDAY
FOR PZZ356-376.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT TUESDAY
FOR PZZ350-370.
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