146
FXUS66 KMFR 082120
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
220 PM PDT MON JUN 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
COOL SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND WARMER THROUGH THE WEEK. A HEAT WAVE
WILL IMPACT THE REGION AROUND THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HEAT RISK WILL BECOME HIGH IN SOME VALLEYS SUNDAY NIGHT AS
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM.
DISCUSSION
THERE ARE PLENTY OF SHOWERS ON RADAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN
FALLING OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER WARM AIR ADVECTION.
COASTAL LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOWER
TOTALS <0.1 INCHES AROUND THE WESTSIDE VALLEYS AND EVEN LOWER
TOTALS EAST OF THE CASCADES. WE'LL SEE A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY
HIT THE COAST LATER TONIGHT AND BRING ONE LAST SHOT OF RAIN MAINLY
TO COASTAL LOCATIONS.
WITH THE RELATIVELY COOLER AIR MOVING IN, WE'LL SEE THE SHOWERS
PERSIST ALONG THE COAST DURING TUESDAY. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
HAVEN'T CHANGED WITH VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL
ENERGY(CAPE) AROUND THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS HINTS AT JUST PLAIN
OLD SHOWERS WITH NO ELECTRIFICATION OF THE CLOUD. THE AIR ALOFT IS
RELATIVELY STABLE AND DRIER ABOVE 9000 FEET, SO THESE SHOWERS WILL
BE FAIRLY SHALLOW AND LIKELY LIGHTER WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN
FALLING.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DRY OUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME RELATIVELY
COOLER AIR ALREADY IN PLACE. THERE IS A THREAT OF FROST OVER
POPULATED AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EAST.
THEREFORE, WE PUT SOME FROST IN THE WEATHER WORDING FOR LOCATIONS
EAST OF THE CASCADES WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS TREND WARMER HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND HIGHS MOVE ABOUT 4 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER AND MEET CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. NO WEATHER CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEEPER NORTHERLY FLOW
AND A SHORT WAVE FLYING THROUGH EASTERN OREGON. THIS DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE WILL BUILD A HEALTHY NORTH EAST TO SOUTH WEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE OF OREGON
BY THURSDAY MORNING, A THERMAL TROUGH BEGINS TO SET UP OVER
SOUTH WESTERN OREGON AND NORTH WESTERN CALIFORNIA. ONE CAN SEE
THIS IN THE INVERTED 850MB HEIGHTS AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS
VALUES IN THE GFS. TEMPERATURES WILL FURTHER INCREASE AS A RESULT
WITH SOME BROADER NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. NET
RESULT OF THESE WINDS SHOULD BE TEMPERATURES MOVING WARMER. THE
500 MB RIDGE IS STILL SITUATED WEST, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
MOVE WARMER WITHOUT MUCH CHANGE IN THE 500 MB HEIGHTS.
FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, HEAT RISK WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER. HEAT PEAKS ON SUNDAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS LIKELY SETTLES OVER OUR AREA WITH 592DM HEIGHTS.
RIGHT NOW, WE'RE FORECASTING A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 105 IN MEDFORD
ON SUNDAY WITH A LOW OF 65 SUNDAY NIGHT. THE EXTREME FORECAST
INDEX(EFI) IS HINTING AT AN UNUSUALLY STRONG HEAT EVENT WITH MAX
TEMPS AND MIN TEMPS RIGHT AROUND 0.8 TO 0.85, WHICH IS FAIRLY
STRONG FOR EARLY JUNE, YET NOT EXTREME. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH
WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THIS RIDGE BASED AS WELL, SO THIS HEAT IS
DEFINITELY ON THE WAY FOR SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. FINALLY, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AROUND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK(16TH-17TH) BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE GEFS
500 MB HEIGHTS. THEREFORE, THIS HEAT WAVE SHOULD BE OF THE SHORTER
VARIETY.
-SMITH
AVIATION...08/18Z TAFS
A LATE SEASON SYSTEM IS BRINGING A VARIETY
OF CONDITIONS TO THE REGION TODAY. GENERALLY, MVFR MIXED WITH LOW
END VFR AND WIDESPREAD TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS IS OCCURRING ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH HIGHER CEILINGS/VFR PREVAILING EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN THESE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ALONG
THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO, INCLUDING KOTH, WHERE SURFACE WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST WHILE WINDS ABOUT 2000 FT ARE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 50 KTS. THIS CONCERN EASES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS GUSTY WINDS SURFACE. BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS WELL, BUT WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST.
SHOWERS/PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING,
BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER WELL INTO TUESDAY MORNING. OVERALL,
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE A MIX OF MVFR/LOW END VFR WITH GENERAL CLEARING
EXPECTED AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. /BR-Y
MARINE...UPDATED 1200 AM PDT MONDAY, JUNE 8, 2026
A COLD FRONT
IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND
STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS. THE STEEPEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO WHERE SOUTH GALES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS EASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP FOR ALL
AREAS INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH VERY STEEP SEAS LINGERING NORTH OF
BANDON THROUGH TONIGHT.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT TUESDAY
FOR PZZ356-376.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT TUESDAY
FOR PZZ350-370.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM PDT
TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
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