082
FXUS66 KMFR 090603
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1103 PM PDT MON JUN 8 2026
..UPDATED THE AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS
AVIATION...09/06Z TAFS
A LATE SEASON SYSTEM WILL BRING CONTINUED
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL LIFR ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, THEN LIFTING TO VFR AROUND 18-20Z. INLAND, EXPECT A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AREAS FROM THE CASCADES WEST HAVE MODERATE
CHANCES (40-60%) FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, INCLUDING AT ROSEBURG AND MEDFORD. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY
WILL BE IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY.
EAST OF THE CASCADES, EXPECT PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
KLAMATH FALLS HAS A 40% CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS IN SHOWERS AROUND 06-
10Z. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TUESDAY MORNING, BECOMING
MAINLY VFR AROUND 18Z. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTY, BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM PDT MONDAY, JUNE 8, 2026
STEEP SEAS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH VERY STEEP SEAS
PERSISTING NORTH OF BANDON THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS BRIEFLY
IMPROVE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH BRINGS GUSTY NORTH
WINDS AND WIND DRIVEN SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, LIKELY SPREADING TO ALL AREAS BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 447 PM PDT MON JUN 8 2026/
SYNOPSIS...
COOL SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND WARMER THROUGH THE WEEK. A HEAT WAVE
WILL IMPACT THE REGION AROUND THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HEAT RISK WILL BECOME HIGH IN SOME VALLEYS SUNDAY NIGHT AS
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM.
DISCUSSION...
THERE ARE PLENTY OF SHOWERS ON RADAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN
FALLING OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER WARM AIR ADVECTION.
COASTAL LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOWER
TOTALS <0.1 INCHES AROUND THE WESTSIDE VALLEYS AND EVEN LOWER
TOTALS EAST OF THE CASCADES. WE'LL SEE A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY
HIT THE COAST LATER TONIGHT AND BRING ONE LAST SHOT OF RAIN MAINLY
TO COASTAL LOCATIONS.
WITH THE RELATIVELY COOLER AIR MOVING IN, WE'LL SEE THE SHOWERS
PERSIST ALONG THE COAST DURING TUESDAY. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
HAVEN'T CHANGED WITH VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL
ENERGY(CAPE) AROUND THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS HINTS AT JUST PLAIN
OLD SHOWERS WITH NO ELECTRIFICATION OF THE CLOUD. THE AIR ALOFT IS
RELATIVELY STABLE AND DRIER ABOVE 9000 FEET, SO THESE SHOWERS WILL
BE FAIRLY SHALLOW AND LIKELY LIGHTER WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN
FALLING.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DRY OUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME RELATIVELY
COOLER AIR ALREADY IN PLACE. THERE IS A THREAT OF FROST OVER
POPULATED AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EAST.
THEREFORE, WE PUT SOME FROST IN THE WEATHER WORDING FOR LOCATIONS
EAST OF THE CASCADES WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS TREND WARMER HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND HIGHS MOVE ABOUT 4 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER AND MEET CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. NO WEATHER CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEEPER NORTHERLY FLOW
AND A SHORT WAVE FLYING THROUGH EASTERN OREGON. THIS DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE WILL BUILD A HEALTHY NORTH EAST TO SOUTH WEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE OF OREGON
BY THURSDAY MORNING, A THERMAL TROUGH BEGINS TO SET UP OVER
SOUTH WESTERN OREGON AND NORTH WESTERN CALIFORNIA. ONE CAN SEE
THIS IN THE INVERTED 850MB HEIGHTS AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS
VALUES IN THE GFS. TEMPERATURES WILL FURTHER INCREASE AS A RESULT
WITH SOME BROADER NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. NET
RESULT OF THESE WINDS SHOULD BE TEMPERATURES MOVING WARMER. THE
500 MB RIDGE IS STILL SITUATED WEST, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
MOVE WARMER WITHOUT MUCH CHANGE IN THE 500 MB HEIGHTS.
FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, HEAT RISK WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER. HEAT PEAKS ON SUNDAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS LIKELY SETTLES OVER OUR AREA WITH 592DM HEIGHTS.
RIGHT NOW, WE'RE FORECASTING A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 105 IN MEDFORD
ON SUNDAY WITH A LOW OF 65 SUNDAY NIGHT. THE EXTREME FORECAST
INDEX(EFI) IS HINTING AT AN UNUSUALLY STRONG HEAT EVENT WITH MAX
TEMPS AND MIN TEMPS RIGHT AROUND 0.8 TO 0.85, WHICH IS FAIRLY
STRONG FOR EARLY JUNE, YET NOT EXTREME. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH
WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THIS RIDGE BASED AS WELL, SO THIS HEAT IS
DEFINITELY ON THE WAY FOR SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. FINALLY, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AROUND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK(16TH-17TH) BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE GEFS
500 MB HEIGHTS. THEREFORE, THIS HEAT WAVE SHOULD BE OF THE SHORTER
VARIETY.
-SMITH
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029-031.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ030.
CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ082>085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT TUESDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
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