029
FXUS66 KMFR 100102
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
602 PM PDT TUE JUN 9 2026
..UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION
AVIATION (00Z TAFS)
AREAS OF MVFR ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO, AND
INTO THE LOWER UMPQUA VALLEY (NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF ROSEBURG)
AROUND 06Z TONIGHT TO 17Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO, GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF UP TO 25 KT WILL DIMINISH AFTER 04Z THIS EVENING.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST BREEZES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG, EXCEPT AT THE COAST SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO WHERE
GUSTS WILL AGAIN BE AT 20 TO 30 KT. OTHERWISE, VFR WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MARINE...UPDATED 100 PM PDT TUESDAY, JUNE 9, 2026
SEAS HAVE
SUBSIDED THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY
BREEZES. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, A THERMAL TROUGH BRINGS GUSTY NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, LIKELY
SPREADING TO ALL AREAS BY THURSDAY AND POTENTIALLY LASTING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS ARE POSSIBLE THEN TOO,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 142 PM PDT TUE JUN 9 2026/
SYNOPSIS...
FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL COVER LOCATIONS EAST OF THE
CASCADES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER INTO THE
WEEKEND. MODERATE HEAT RISK WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY SUNDAY AS HIGHS
PUSH INTO THE LOWER 100'S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60'S. TEMPERATURES
TREND COOLER BY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...
NOTHING ON RADAR THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH SOME SURFACE STATIONS
HAVE REPORTED LIGHT RAIN OVER THE PREVIOUS HOUR IN NORTHERN
DOUGLAS AND COOS COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO DRY THINGS OUT
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DRIES OUT A BIT.
COOLER ONSHORE FLOW MIXED WITH CLEARING SKIES WILL REALLY ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP TONIGHT EAST OF THE CASCADES. LOWS WILL
APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK IN KLAMATH FALLS, WHICH HAS A 35%
CHANCE OF LOWS BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. FROST IS DEFINITELY THE
MORE LIKELY THREAT AS KLAMATH FALLS AND CHILOQUIN HAVE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF DROPPING BELOW 36 TONIGHT AT 70% AND 75%.
LAKEVIEW HAS A 50% CHANCE WHILE ALTURAS HAS A 60% CHANCE OF
FALLING BELLOW 36.
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, A THERMAL TROUGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN OREGON COAST WITH SOME VERY LIGHT 5 KNOT EASTERLY TO
NORTH EASTERLY BREEZES AROUND 850MB. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO TREND WARMER BOTH DAYS OVER SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AS A RIDGE REMAINS WELL TO OUR EAST. IT LOOKS LIKE
TEMPERATURES PEAK IN BROOKINGS DURING THIS TIME WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70'S AND PERHAPS MID 80'S ON THURSDAY.
THE THEME OF WARMING TEMPERATURES CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AND THE
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS STARTING
TO INCREASE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THINGS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
AROUND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHEN A SMALL SET OF ENSEMBLES(~25%)
BRING A SHORT WAVE THROUGH EASTERN OREGON. THE OTHER SET OF
ENSEMBLES STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE LATEST NBM RUN, WHICH HAS NOW INGESTED THE 12Z
ENSEMBLES, HAS COOLED A BIT WITH A HIGH OF 100 HERE IN MEDFORD,
WHICH IS 3 DEGREES SHORT OF THE RECORD OF 103 ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER,
HIGHS NEAR 100 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60'S STILL PUTS US A
MODERATE HEAT RISK FOR THIS WEEKEND. MODERATE HEAT RISK AFFECTS
THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND WITHOUT ACCESS TO COOLING/HYDRATION
FACILITIES. IT CAN ALSO IMPACT SOME HEALTH SYSTEMS DURING THE HEAT
EVENT.
EVENTUALLY, THIS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND ENSEMBLES HINT AT MORE
ZONAL FLOW BY TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WELL DEFINED
DRY COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OF NEXT WEEK, SO THAT
WILL HAVE TO BE SOMETHING TO WATCH.
-SMITH
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029-031.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ030.
CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ082>085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
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