260
FXUS66 KMFR 101040
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
340 AM PDT WED JUN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* CHILLY EARLY THIS MORNING EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH AREAS OF
FROST, BUT SUNNY AND MILDER THIS AFTERNOON; CLOUDS WEST OF THE
CASCADES THIS MORNING BREAK FOR A SUNNY, SEASONABLE AFTERNOON.
* TEMPERATURES TREND UPWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THEN EVEN HOTTER
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT WILL
BE AFFECTED DURING THE HOTTEST PART OF THE AFTERNOONS,
GENERALLY 2-6 PM. EVEN THE COAST WILL HAVE PERIODS OF WARMTH.
* NO RAIN FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH POPS REMAINING 10% OR LESS
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
* MORE ZONAL PATTERN DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK, SO TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE
DOWNWARD BY WEDNESDAY, BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST IS BUILDING INTO
SW OREGON AND NORCAL THIS MORNING. IT TOOK MOST OF LAST EVENING
FOR BREEZES TO DIE DOWN, BUT TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING EAST OF
THE CASCADES AND IN NE CALIFORNIA, SO EXPECT SOME AREAS TO WAKE
UP TO FROST. THIS WON'T LAST LONG THOUGH SINCE THE SUN RISES AT
AROUND 530 AM NOW AND TEMPS SHOULD MOSTLY GET ABOVE FROST
THRESHOLDS BY 7-8 AM. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING SOME CLOUDS
LINGERING FROM THE CASCADES WEST, BUT THESE WILL BREAK UP AND
YIELD TO SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL, SEASONABLE HIGH
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL ZIP
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN WA THIS MORNING INTO SOUTHERN ID THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE'S NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO A VERY DRY
AIR MASS, BUT IT WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS EAST OF
THE CASCADES AND IN NORCAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
UPPER RIDGING TAKES HOLD OFFSHORE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS
WILL INDUCE A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
ALONG THE SW OREGON COAST. FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE (NE WINDS) TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AND RESULTS IN GUSTY NORTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND
OVER THE MARINE WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
SOME NIGHTTIME MID-SLOPE AND RIDGE BREEZES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
MTNS AND COAST RANGES. WARMING CONTINUES OVER THE INTERIOR WITH
TEMPS GETTING TO 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL, HIGHEST WEST OF THE
CASCADES. EVEN BROOKINGS WILL HAVE SOME WARMER DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND EVEN LOWER 80S. THE WARMING COULD BE MUTED A BIT EAST
OF THE CASCADES SINCE THEY'LL BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE AND AT LEAST ONE DISTURBANCE WILL COME SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WON'T BE ALL
THAT NOTICEABLE, BUT COULD RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN NORTHERLY
BREEZES, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE THEN BUILDS MORE STRONGLY INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, RESULTING IN THE HOTTEST WEATHER OF THE YEAR
THUS FAR. MODELS HAVE TEMPERED THE HEAT SOMEWHAT, BUT HIGHS FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 90S
WITH EVEN SOME TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS POSSIBLE AROUND THE ROGUE,
APPLEGATE AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS. THIS RESULTS IN MODERATE HEATRISK
WHICH AFFECTS THOSE SENSITIVE TO THE HEAT AND WITHOUT ACCESS TO
ADEQUATE COOLING/HYDRATION FACILITIES. WE'LL BE CONSIDERING
POSSIBLE HEAT HEADLINES OVER THE COMING DAYS.
THE RIDGE PATTERN FLATTENS TOWARD MID NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAJORITY
OF MODELS/ENSEMBLES TRENDING LOWER WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES,
BUT ALSO REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. -SPILDE
AVIATION...10/12Z TAFS
MOST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING VFR
CEILINGS AROUND 4000 FEET THIS MORNING WEST OF THE CASCADES. BUT,
THIS IS RESULTING IN HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATION NEAR THE CASCADES,
THE ROGUE/UMPQUA DIVIDE MOUNTAINS AND ALSO THE COAST RANGES. PATCHY
FOG IS ALSO PRESENT IN SOME INTERIOR COASTAL VALLEYS. THESE
SHOULD ALL GRADUALLY CLEAR TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON. VFR WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
BREEZES CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY, EXCEPT AT THE COAST SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO WHERE GUSTS WILL AGAIN BE AT 20 TO 30 KT. -SPILDE
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT WEDNESDAY, JUNE 10, 2026
A
STRENGTHENING THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP
TO LOCALLY VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO BY THURSDAY AND LAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WHILE GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS DEVELOP SOUTH OF PORT
ORFORD. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD EASE SOMEWHAT NEXT WEEK, BUT PROBABLY
AT LEAST REMAIN HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. -SPILDE
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ029-031.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ030.
CA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ082>085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT
SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT
THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-
376.
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