618
FXUS66 KMFR 110109
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
609 PM PDT WED JUN 10 2026
..UPDATED THE AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS
AVIATION...11/00Z TAFS
PATCHY LATE NIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING IFR/LIFR IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE COQUILLE
AND UMPQUA VALLEYS. ALSO, GUSTY, BREEZY NORTHWEST TO NORTH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR
WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.
MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM PDT WEDNESDAY, JUNE 10, 2026
A
STRENGTHENING THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND
STEEP TO LOCALLY VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO
THIS EVENING. THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO BY THURSDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WHILE GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS DEVELOP SOUTH OF PORT
ORFORD. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DIMINISH SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO ON SUNDAY.
BUT, A STEEP, FRESH SWELL IS LIKELY TO PERSIST AND BE FOLLOWED BY
NORTH WINDS AGAIN STRENGTHENING TO GALES.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 243 PM PDT WED JUN 10 2026/
DISCUSSION...
KEY POINTS:
* MINOR TO MODERATE IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST
* THE HEAT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING MODERATE
IMPACTS TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL
- MANY WESTSIDE AREAS COULD SEE HIGHS AROUND 100 DEGREES
* FROST POTENTIAL FOR SOME EASTSIDE AREAS THURSDAY MORNING
* MONITORING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HEATWAVE
- WILL SEE AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
- FUELS FORECAST TO BECOME RECEPTIVE FOR MOST OF THE AREA
FURTHER DETAILS:
AN AREA OF 500MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC LOCATED BETWEEN
130W/140W AND 30N/40N WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
RESULTING IN A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH
NO SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION. BY THIS WEEKEND, THIS CENTER IS
CLOSER TO 130W AND 40N AND SUBSEQUENTLY RESULTING IN HIGHER
HEIGHTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BY SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE
GOING TO NUDGE CLOSER TO ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BOTH CLOSER TO ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MANY
WESTSIDE VALLEYS WILL BE CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES ON SUNDAY/MONDAY AND
POTENTIALLY TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER WILL NEED CLOSER MONITORING ONCE THE HEAT WAVE
BEGINS AND FUELS START TO TREND HIGHER TOWARDS THE 90TH PERCENTILE
AND IN SOME CASES POTENTIALLY THE 97TH PERCENTILE. AT THIS TIME,
WIND CONDITIONS MAY BE THE ONE VARIABLE THAT KEEPS CONDITIONS
TAMED, BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL START TO INCREASE SATURDAY. THIS MAY
RESULT IN AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
AND MORE LIKELY NEXT WEEK.
OF NOTE, BUT BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE FORECAST TO REMAIN DRY INTO LATER PARTS OF THIS MONTH.
-GUERRERO
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ084-085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT
SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT
SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-
376.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-
376.
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