992
FXUS66 KMFR 120010
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
510 PM PDT THU JUN 11 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS
KEY MESSAGES
*WARMING, DRYING TREND TO CLOSE OUT THIS WEEK AND INTO THIS
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES JUMPING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
EVEN SOME UNUSUAL WARMTH REACHING COASTAL LOCATIONS (90S IN
BROOKINGS SATURDAY? AND LOW 80S COOS BAY/NORTH BEND SUNDAY?).
*HEAT WAVE SUN-TUE WITH UPPER 90S AND 100+ HEAT EXPECTED INLAND
WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S OVER THE EAST
SIDE.
*SOME COOLING MID-LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
*NO RAIN CHANCES NEXT 7 DAYS, THOUGH WE'LL BE KEEPING AN EYE OUT
FOR T-STORM POTENTIAL AT THE END OF THE HEAT WAVE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON.
THINGS HAVE WARMED UP CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS AND WE'LL CONTINUE THAT TREND LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, CULMINATING IN A BROAD HEAT WAVE EXPECTED DURING THE
SUNDAY TO TUESDAY (MAYBE WEDNESDAY - ESP EAST SIDE) TIME FRAME.
A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE COMING DAYS, ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC TO AMPLIFY AND BUILD INTO THE WESTERN US THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL, A THERMAL TROUGH
WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST, WITH TEMPERATURES IN AND AROUND
BROOKINGS EXPECTED TO RISE WELL INTO THE 80S EACH DAY (IT'S 80F AS
OF THIS WRITING AT KBOK) THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS SHOW THE PEAK OF
OFFSHORE FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, SO IT COULD BE
QUITE WARM AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHETCO FRIDAY NIGHT (NOT MUCH
COOLING) AS THE NE WINDS FUNNEL DOWN THE RIVER VALLEY. WITH
ONSHORE FLOW LACKING INTO SATURDAY, IT COULD CONCEIVABLY REACH
INTO THE 90S, EVEN THOUGH CURRENT MODELS DON'T EXPLICITLY SHOW
THAT POTENTIAL. INLAND, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BY 2 TO 5 DEGREES
OVER THE PREVIOUS DAY EACH AFTERNOON INTO THIS WEEKEND.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
TROUGH INTERRUPTS THE FLOW BRIEFLY, THEN THE RIDGE REBUILDS
QUICKLY AND REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS INTERRUPTION WILL PUSH THE THERMAL TROUGH INLAND, AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN VERY WARM TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE 20 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY TO MID JUNE, WITH WIDESPREAD TRIPLE
DIGIT, OR UPPER 90S, HIGHS WEST OF THE CASCADES, AND UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S TO THE EAST. MODEL FORECAST 850 TEMPERATURES (A VERY
RELIABLE SIGNAL FOR DAILY HIGHS) ARE FORECAST TO REACH 26 TO 28
DEGREES C, WHICH WHEN MIXED TO THE SURFACE (ESPECIALLY NOW DURING
OUR LONGEST DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THE YEAR), SUGGEST HIGHS COULD REACH
105 DEGREES F IN MEDFORD AND GRANTS PASS, AND AS HIGH AS 110 IN
THE LOWER KLAMATH AND SALMON VALLEYS IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY.
THESE WILL BE THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS
YEAR, AND CHANCES ARE VERY GOOD THAT WE WILL SEE RECORD DAILY
HIGHS FOR MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION. NWS HEATRISK IS
SHOWING WIDESPREAD MODERATE IMPACTS WITH AREAS OF MAJOR IMPACTS.
AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS AS IF NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SOMEWHAT OF A MITIGATING FACTOR TO THE HEAT, SINCE MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO COOL OFF ADEQUATELY. AS SUCH, THIS LOOKS LIKE AN
ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT. WE'LL BE EVALUATING THE NEED FOR HEAT
HEADLINES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF SHIFTS.
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN A BIT BY WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD
BE DELAYED BY AS MUCH AS A DAY, AS THESE PATTERNS TYPICALLY ARE,
WHICH WILL LET TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. OF NOTE, WE ALSO TEND TO SEE AN INCREASED RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE BACK SIDE OF HEAT WAVES. AS THE MID SHIFT
MENTIONED LAST NIGHT, MODEL SUITES KEEP THE AREA DRY AT THE END OF
THIS ONE, BUT THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF INSTABILITY STARTING TO
APPEAR IN SOME RUNS ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY
OVER MODOC AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE, WHICH APPEARS LACKING AS OF NOW, AND A CLEAR
TRIGGER TO SET OFF CONVECTION. SO WHILE CHANCES ARE VERY LOW NOW,
WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHTNING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. CONFIDENCE SHOULD IMPROVE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE TIME
PERIOD IN QUESTION, AND MODEL BETTER RESOLVE THE SITUATION.
-SPILDE/BPN
AVIATION...12/00Z TAFS
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SUPPORT
CONTINUING VFR LEVELS ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE OREGON
COAST LOOK TO EASE INTO THE EVENING. ONSHORE FLOW MAY BRING MARINE
STRATUS INTO THE COQUILLE BASIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE
IN FLIGHT LEVELS AT NORTH BEND BEING AFFECTED IS CURRENTLY LOW. IF
STRATUS DOES DEVELOP, THAT LAYER LOOKS TO BREAK UP BEFORE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP THE COAST AND POSSIBLY AT THE
ROSEBURG TERMINAL LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 1200 PM PDT THURSDAY, JUNE 11, 2026
A THERMAL
TROUGH PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY
STEEP WIND-DRIVEN SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OREGON COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO, WHERE GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WINDS EASE SOME ON SUNDAY, BUT STEEP FRESH SWELL IS
LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS LIKELY STRENGTHEN
AGAIN AROUND TUESDAY. /BR-Y
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT THURSDAY, JUNE 11, 2026
A
STEADY WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THIS WEEK, CULMINATING IN AN EARLY SEASON HEAT WAVE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BY 3 TO 5
DEGREES AND HUMIDITIES WILL TREND ABOUT 3 TO 5 PERCENT DRIER EACH
AFTERNOON (MINIMUM RHS 10-20%). MEANWHILE, BROAD NORTH THROUGH EAST
FLOW WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO POOR RH RECOVERIES OVER UPPER
SLOPES/RIDGES EACH NIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE KLAMATH MTNS,
SISKIYOUS, AND CASCADES. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF GUSTY OFFSHORE
E-NE WINDS OVER THE SISKIYOU MTNS AND COAST RANGES FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH (40 MPH?)
RANGE.
OUR TYPICAL DIURNAL AFTERNOON BREEZES COULD BECOME GUSTY AT
TIMES, PARTICULARLY FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WHILE CRITICAL CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED WITHIN THE CURRENT FORECAST, LOCALIZED CONDITIONS
COULD GET CLOSE, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE
DIGIT MINIMUM HUMIDITIES THAT ARE LIKELY DURING THE PEAK OF THE
HEAT WAVE. THE HEAT WAVE WILL REACH A PEAK SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ABOUT 20 TO 25 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR
EARLY TO MID JUNE.
ALSO OF NOTE, ONCE THE HEATS BEGINS TO EASE MIDWEEK, WE WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT
CURRENTLY SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION CHANCES, BUT THERE ARE
SOME HINTS IN THE VARIOUS MODEL SUITES, AND THUNDERSTORMS DO
TYPICALLY ACCOMPANY THE BREAKDOWN OF A HEAT WAVE IN THIS AREA, SO
THERE IS AT LEAST A VERY SLIGHT POTENTIAL, PROBABLY FOCUSED ON FAR
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST SIDE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT NOW,
BUT WE WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST AS NECESSARY OVER THE COMING DAYS.
-SPILDE/BPN
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT
SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
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