344
FXUS66 KMFR 122348
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
448 PM PDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION SECTION
AVIATION (00Z TAFS)
A MARINE LAYER WILL BRING A CHANCE (40%) OF IFR CEILINGS TO KOTH
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, THIS CYCLE WILL BE NOTED BY MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS. BREEZY WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.
-GUERRERO
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 200 PM PDT FRI JUN 12 2026/
KEY MESSAGES...
*WARMING, DRYING TREND TO CLOSE OUT THIS WEEK AND INTO THIS
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES JUMPING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
EVEN SOME UNUSUAL WARMTH REACHING COASTAL LOCATIONS (POTENTIAL
HIGHS IN THE 90S IN BROOKINGS SATURDAY AND LOW 80S COOS
BAY/NORTH BEND SUNDAY).
*HEAT WAVE SUN-TUE WITH UPPER 90S AND 100+ HEAT EXPECTED INLAND
WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S OVER THE EAST
SIDE.
*SOME COOLING MID-LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
*NO RAIN CHANCES NEXT 7 DAYS, THOUGH WE'LL BE KEEPING AN EYE OUT
FOR T-STORM POTENTIAL AT THE END OF THE HEAT WAVE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...ONCE AGAIN, SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES ARE RESPONDING TO
THE HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WARMER AIR ALOFT WITH MOST AREAS 2-6F
WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE WARMTH HAS BEEN FELT ALL THE WAY TO
BROOKINGS, WHERE NE WINDS CHANNELING DOWN THE CHETCO RIVER SENT
THE TEMPERATURE TO 88F EARLIER AT THE AIRPORT. THE AGRIMET SITE
CLOSER TO THE OCEAN WAS HOLDING AROUND 70F.
THE UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARM UP IS BUILDING OUT
AROUND 130W AND THIS IS INDUCING A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH ALONG
THE NORCAL COAST, EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO SW OREGON. WE EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OFFSHORE WINDS WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE
SISKIYOU MTNS AND COAST RANGES OF SW OREGON TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. SO, THIS MEANS LITTLE OCEAN INFLUENCE DOWN THERE AND LESS
COOLING THAN RECENT NIGHTS. IT ALSO MEANS THAT SATURDAY WILL
PROBABLY BE EVEN HOTTER IN BROOKINGS DUE TO THE LACK OF ONSHORE
MARINE INFLUENCE. MODELS HAVE BEEN ABOUT 5-10F TOO LOW WITH TEMPS
THERE THE LAST 2 DAYS. SO, IT'LL PROBABLY END UP IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S BASED ON CURRENT MODEL SOUNDINGS EVEN THOUGH MODELS ONLY
GIVE THAT ABOUT A 10% CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE. A HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
INLAND, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BY 3 TO 7 DEGREES OVER THE
PREVIOUS DAY EACH AFTERNOON SAT/SUN. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH INTERRUPTS THE FLOW
BRIEFLY, THEN THE RIDGE REBUILDS QUICKLY AND REMAINS OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT THE PEAK OF HEAT WAVE
SUN/MON/TUE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA OF 20 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY TO MID JUNE. SOME RECORDS WILL BE
CHALLENGED OR BROKEN. WITH NWS HEATRISK SHOWING WIDESPREAD
MODERATE IMPACTS AND SMALLER AREAS OF MAJOR HEAT IMPACTS, WE'VE
ISSUED HEAT ADVISORIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST SIDE (ALSO
INCLUDING THE MT. SHASTA REGION). THE DETAILS CAN BE VIEWED AT
PDXNPWMFR. EXPECT HIGHS OF 90-100F IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH SOME
WEST SIDE VALLEYS 100-105F AND UP TO 110F IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY. WE HAVEN'T ADDED EAST SIDE AREAS YET, BUT MAY ADD THEM TOO
WITH POTENTIAL ADVISORIES MON/TUE. RECENT TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING FROM THE NW TUESDAY AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER INLAND. AS SUCH, THE ADVISORIES FOR
COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES END A BIT SOONER THAN THE REST.
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN A BIT AT MIDWEEK. THIS COULD BE
DELAYED BY AS MUCH AS A DAY, AS THESE PATTERNS TYPICALLY ARE,
WHICH WILL LET TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. OF NOTE, WE ALSO TEND TO SEE AN INCREASED RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE BACK SIDE OF HEAT WAVES. MODELS KEEP THE
AREA DRY AT THE END OF THIS ONE, BUT THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF
INSTABILITY STARTING TO APPEAR IN SOME RUNS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT MORESO THURSDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER MODOC AND
SISKIYOU COUNTIES. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE, WHICH APPEARS LACKING AS OF NOW, AND A CLEAR TRIGGER TO
SET OFF CONVECTION. SO WHILE CHANCES ARE VERY LOW (~10%) NOW, WE
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHTNING AROUND THE MIDDLE-LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE SHOULD IMPROVE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE TIME
PERIOD IN QUESTION, AND MODEL BETTER RESOLVE THE SITUATION.
-SPILDE/BPN
AVIATION...12/18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
AND WILL DO SO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON,
STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KT WILL BE COMMON.
SOME PATCHY IFR/LIFR MARINE STRATUS COULD RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE
COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO TONIGHT, INCLUDING AT NORTH BEND, BUT
SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR TO VFR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. /BR-Y
MARINE...UPDATED 1200 PM PDT FRIDAY, JUNE 12, 2026...A THERMAL
TROUGH PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY
STEEP WIND-DRIVEN SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OREGON COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO, WHERE GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS EASE BELOW GALES SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT REMAIN ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH STEEP FRESH SWELL PERSISTING INTO MONDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, AS WINDS WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT, A WIND REVERSAL IS
LIKELY SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH AND WITHIN 30 NM OF SHORE WHERE MARINE
STRATUS WILL SURGE NORTHWARD, BRINGING REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
THE THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN REBOUNDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
THE RETURN OF STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN
SEAS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. /BR-Y
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 100 PM PDT FRIDAY, JUNE 12, 2026...
RAPID WARMING AND DRYING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EARLY SEASON HEAT WAVE THAT WILL
LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE,
PEAKING SUNDAY TO TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ABOUT 20-25 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS FOR THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES, BUT ESPECIALLY
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, WHERE IT COULD GET TO AROUND 110F.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO TREND LOWER (BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE 10-20% RANGE FOR MOST AREAS) -- THOUGH RHS COULD EVEN DROP
INTO SINGLE DIGITS AT TIMES OVER THE EAST SIDE DESERTS. MEANWHILE,
BROAD NORTH THROUGH EAST FLOW WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO POOR RH
RECOVERIES OVER UPPER SLOPES/RIDGES EACH NIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE KLAMATH MTNS, SISKIYOUS, AND CASCADES. A PERIOD OF GUSTY
OFFSHORE E-NE WINDS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING OVER
THE SISKIYOU MTNS AND COAST RANGES WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE 25-35
MPH (40 MPH?) RANGE. THIS COULD REPEAT SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE MORE OVER THE INLAND MOUNTAINS SINCE THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INLAND. POOR RIDGE RH RECOVERIES ARE
MOST LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT. ALSO SOME STRONGER NORTHERLIES COULD
CHANNEL THROUGH THE GOOSE BASIN NEAR LAKEVIEW TONIGHT-SUNDAY.
THE TYPICAL DIURNAL AFTERNOON N-E BREEZES COULD AGAIN BECOME
GUSTY AT TIMES SATURDAY. WHILE CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED WITHIN THE CURRENT FORECAST, LOCALIZED CONDITIONS COULD
GET CLOSE, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LOW TEENS AND POTENTIAL
SINGLE DIGIT MINIMUM HUMIDITIES DURING THE PEAK OF THE HEAT WAVE.
UNDOUBTEDLY, THIS PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE THE NEEDLE TOWARD HIGHER FIRE DANGER AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK.
ALSO OF NOTE, ONCE THE HEAT BEGINS TO EASE MIDWEEK, WE WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
NOT CURRENTLY SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION CHANCES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BUT, THERE CONTINUE TO BE HINTS IN THE VARIOUS MODEL
SUITES, AND THUNDERSTORMS DO TYPICALLY ACCOMPANY THE BREAKDOWN OF
A HEAT WAVE IN THIS AREA. THERE IS AT LEAST A VERY SLIGHT
POTENTIAL (~10% CHANCE) WITH SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING CONVECTION
NEAR THE SIERRA, WHICH COULD AFFECT SE SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA TOWARD THU/FRI NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCE FOCUSED ON FAR
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST SIDE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
RIGHT NOW, BUT WE WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST AS NECESSARY OVER THE
COMING DAYS. -SPILDE/BPN
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
ORZ021>026.
CA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
CAZ080>082.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT MONDAY
FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
JWG/JWG/JWG
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