911
FXUS66 KMFR 020518
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1018 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2026
DISCUSSION
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...02/06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS OF COASTAL MVFR
(MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO) LATE THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING (AROUND 05Z-17Z) AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO,
AFTERNOON AND EVENING N-NW BREEZES CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN
THURSDAY, THOUGH SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
PEAK GUSTS OF 20-25 KT ALONG THE COAST. -SPILDE
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 115 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2026/
KEY POINTS...
* LOW IMPACT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY.
* MILD TEMPERATURES AND ENHANCED AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY. NIGHTLY RETURN OF CLOUDS WEST OF THE CASCADES
WILL GIVE WAY TO SUN IN THE AFTERNOONS.
* NO PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILDUPS
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST SIDE THROUGH
THURSDAY...STRAY SHOWER POSSIBLE.
* TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, PEAKING AROUND
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
* SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK - PATTERN BEARS WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR DAYS WHERE GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW RH
COULD RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION...A BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY, POSSIBLY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WEAKENS AND BEGINS EXPANDING WESTWARD. HEIGHTS WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND ESTABLISHES OVER
THE DESERT SW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA, LEAVING THE
AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY, THE
FORECAST WILL LARGELY BE A RINSE/REPEAT SCENARIO EACH DAY. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BRING THE RETURN OF STRATUS COVER TO AREAS WEST OF THE
CASCADES EACH NIGHT/MORNING, WITH CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SUN IN THE
AFTERNOONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL, EQUATING TO UPPER 70S/LOW-MID 80S THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECT SOME ENHANCED NORTHWEST BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS WITH GUSTS
20 TO 25 MPH.
NO PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST, BUT THERE IS ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY FOR SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS TO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF THE CASCADES IN THE
AFTERNOONS. A STRAY SHOWER ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT OVERALL,
WE AREN'T SEEING ANY STRONG SIGNALS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS ON FRIDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE REGION.
WE DON'T EXPECT IMPACTFUL WEATHER THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER ON FRIDAY, ACTUALLY REACHING VALUES
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR -- LOW-UPPER 80S. AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDS WESTWARD, AND ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE DESERT SW BY
MONDAY, WE'LL SEE AN UPTICK TREND IN HIGH TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (UPPER 80S
EAST /LOW 90S WEST), SO WE DON'T EXPECT ANY HEAT RELATED IMPACTS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE SHOULD GET THROUGH MOST OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE DESERT SW, WE'LL NEED TO MONITOR
THE PATTERN FOR ANY DAYS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE.
CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE THE SOONEST THAT COULD BE WOULD BE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF SOME
TROPICAL MOISTURE GETTING SWEPT INTO THE MID-LATTITUDES. AT THIS
TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE THAT MOISTURE STAYS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO NOT BE
A CONCERN FOR OUR AREA, BUT IT IS A PATTERN WORTH WATCHING FOR
ANY CHANGES. ADDITIONALLY, WITH WEAK TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH TO
THE NORTH, WE'LL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY DAYS WHERE GUSTY WINDS
COULD LINE UP WITH LOW DAYTIME RHS AND RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. SO JUST TO SUMMARIZE, AT THIS POINT, THERE
AREN'T ANY DAYS WE COULD POINT TO IN PARTICULAR WHERE IMPACTFUL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT WE WILL BE HEADING INTO A PATTERN EARLY
NEXT WEEK THAT BEARS WATCHING FOR POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL WEATHER.
STAY TUNED.
AVIATION...01/18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS OF COASTAL MVFR
(MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO) LATE THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING (AROUND 05Z-17Z). ALSO, CONTINUE TO EXPECT EPISODES OF
GUSTY, BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 20-25 KT.
MARINE...UPDATED 1200 PM PDT WEDNESDAY, JULY 1, 2026...GUSTY NORTH
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
MAINTAINING STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS. NORTH WINDS WILL PEAK TODAY AS
GALES CONTINUE FROM GOLD BEACH SOUTHWARD AND WIND DRIVEN SEAS REMAIN
VERY STEEP THROUGH TONIGHT. STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF GOLD
BEACH WHERE FRESH SWELL WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS.
WINDS EASE TONIGHT AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE ACROSS THE WATERS, BUT
STEEP SEAS AND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS COULD WORSEN AGAIN
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE, POSSIBLY
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY CONDITIONS AND VERY
STEEP SEAS SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
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