555
FXUS66 KMFR 020818
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
118 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY POINTS...
* NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY.
* NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ENHANCED AFTERNOON BREEZES TODAY.
* NO PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTERNOON
CUMULUS BUILDUPS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST
SIDE TODAY...WITH A VERY LOW CHANCE (5%) FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS.
* TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, PEAKING
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
* SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK - WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PATTERN
FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR DAYS WHERE GUSTY WINDS
COMBINED WITH LOW RH COULD RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY. THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG
COASTAL AREAS FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TOMORROW, WITH A POTENTIAL FOR MORE LOW CLOUDS SPREADING
INTO PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA BASIN.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY
MAY BRING SOME CUMULUS BUILD UPS TO MOUNTAINS EAST OF THE CASCADES
AND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
FAVOR DRY WEATHER THOUGH AND ONLY SHOW VERY LOW CHANCES (5%) FOR
A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO, MAINLY IN SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY OR NEAR
SUMMER RIM.
THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST WITH LOWS CONTINUING TO TRACK
INTO CANADA. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAKER TROUGH ON FRIDAY
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES WARMING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THEN, A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHWARD FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
TREND WARMER. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR INLAND AREAS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
80S TO MID 90S ACROSS INLAND VALLEYS BY SATURDAY. GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
FOR MEDFORD AND MONTAGUE AND NEAR 90 FOR KLAMATH FALLS, LAKEVIEW
AND ALTURAS.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS
BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE PACNW COAST.
THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW ALOFT AND WILL
ALLOW SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT TIMES. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE
COMBINATION OF SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND
WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT MAY BRING SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AND MORESO, ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW (10%) AND MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES FOR ENHANCED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WINDS, STARTING AROUND MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WHICH MAY COMBINE WITH
LOW HUMIDITIES AND RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW IN THE DETAILS AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS PERIOD WITH ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS.
AVIATION...02/06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS OF COASTAL MVFR
(MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO) LATE THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING (AROUND 05Z-17Z) AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO,
AFTERNOON AND EVENING N-NW BREEZES CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN
THURSDAY, THOUGH SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
PEAK GUSTS OF 20-25 KT ALONG THE COAST. -SPILDE
MARINE...UPDATED 100 AM PDT THURSDAY, JULY 2, 2026
GUSTY NORTH
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
MAINTAINING STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS. NORTH WINDS UP TO GALES AND
VERY STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE FROM GOLD BEACH SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT.
STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF GOLD BEACH WHERE FRESH SWELL
WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS. WINDS EASE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE ACROSS THE WATERS, BUT STEEP SEAS
AND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS COULD WORSEN AGAIN LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE, POSSIBLY BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY CONDITIONS AND VERY STEEP SEAS SOUTH
OF GOLD BEACH.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
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