199
FXUS66 KMFR 030516
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1016 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2026
DISCUSSION
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...03/06Z TAFS
A SOLID MARINE LAYER DEVELOPED ALONG THE
COAST THIS EVENING WITH IFR CEILINGS FROM AROUND CAPE BLANCO
NORTHWARD, INCLUDING AT NORTH BEND. THESE CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, THEN LIFT TO MVFR AND PROBABLY CLEAR TO VFR 18-20Z
AS GUSTY N WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT
IS HOW FAR INLAND CEILINGS WILL GET. WE THINK STRATUS WILL MOVE INTO
THE LOWER UMPQUA VALLEY MAYBE TO AROUND SCOTTSBURG/ELKTON, BUT ALSO
THE COQUILLE VALLEY NEAR COQUILLE/MYRTLE POINT. WE DON'T THINK IT
WILL MAKE IT TO ROSEBURG, BUT THERE'S ABOUT A 20% CHANCE FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF LOWER CEILINGS ELSEWHERE AROUND THE UMPQUA BASIN
OR MAYBE AROUND CAMAS VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BREEZES. -SPILDE
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 427 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2026/
KEY POINTS...
* LOW IMPACT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY.
* LAST DAY OF MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY. TEMPERATURES TREND
WARMER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, PEAKING AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
* NO PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILDUPS
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST SIDE TODAY...STRAY
SHOWER POSSIBLE.
* SUNDAY/MONDAY - SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND EAST SIDE, MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN
KLAMATH/LAKE COUNTIES
* WEDNESDAY - DRY FRONT RAISES POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
GUSTY WINDS/LOW RH EAST OF CASCADES.
DISCUSSION...BROAD TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION TODAY,
RESULTING IN ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH ENHANCED AFTERNOON BREEZES.
SUMMER CONDITIONS RETURN ON FRIDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD SLIGHTLY AND
TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER TO JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL
WEAKEN AND EXPAND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUT ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND KEEP THIS
RIDGE WEAKER THAN MODELS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. MEANWHILE, WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA,
LEAVING THE AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NO PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY FOR SOME
CUMULUS BUILDUPS ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF THE CASCADES
TODAY, AND WHILE A STRAY SHOWER (5% CHANCE) ISN'T OUT OF THE
QUESTION, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS ON FRIDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE REGION.
WE DON'T EXPECT IMPACTFUL WEATHER THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER ON FRIDAY, ACTUALLY REACHING VALUES
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR -- LOW-UPPER 80S. AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDS WESTWARD, WE'LL SEE AN UPTICK TREND IN HIGH TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (UPPER
80S EAST/MID 90S WEST), SO WE DON'T EXPECT ANY HEAT RELATED IMPACTS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE SHOULD GET THROUGH MOST OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH FAIRLY BENIGN/TYPICAL WEATHER.
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE DESSERT
SOUTHWEST, WE'VE BEEN SCRUTINIZING THE PATTERN FOR ANY DAYS WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS OR THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS/LOW RH COULD BE A
CONCERN. DETAILS ARE BECOMING CLEARER, AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE WE
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WE'LL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THAT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
MOISTURE AND ENERGY THAT MOVES INTO THE MID-LATTITUDES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, AND MODELS SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IN THE REGION
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE BETTER AGREEMENT IS FOR AREA ACROSS
NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES, PRIMARILY FROM CHEMULT EASTWARD,
BUT THESE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERNS TEND TO INCREASE THE RISK ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS WELL. INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY LACKING FOR
TUESDAY, SO THIS DAY LOOKS LESS CONCERNING FOR THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.
ON WEDNESDAY, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A WEAKENING FRONT TO
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. A DEEP MARINE PUSH IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THIS FRONT MOVES INLAND AND IT'S POSSIBLE THERE
COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT REALLY FALLS APART, HOWEVER, AS IT MOVES INLAND,
SO THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY GO UNNOTICED FOR MOST FOLKS. TEMPERATURE
WILL TREND COOLER BY A FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY, BUT NO WHERE NEAR
AS MILD AS WE'VE SEEN OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO. THE BIGGER IMPACT
FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE ENHANCED AFTERNOON WINDS THAT POTENTIALLY
COMBINE WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES AND RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
EAST OF THE CASCADES. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES. /BR-Y
MARINE...UPDATED 1200 PM PDT THURSDAY, JULY 2, 2026...GUSTY NORTH
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
MAINTAINING STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS. CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
IMPROVED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS WINDS ARE LOWER COMPARED TO RECENT
DAYS. HOWEVER, ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO AND MAINTAIN STEEP SEAS SOUTH OF PORT ORFORD INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS LIKELY WORSEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS NORTH
WINDS INCREASE AND STEEP SEAS RETURN TO AREAS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO
WITH VERY STEEP SEAS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS NORTH WINDS WEAKEN. /BR-Y
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT
SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
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