620
FXUS66 KMFR 031203
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
503 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2026
..AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED
DISCUSSION
KEY POINTS...
* LOW IMPACT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY.
* TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND, PEAKING
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
* NO PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
* SUNDAY/MONDAY - SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS (10-15%) ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF THE CASCADES, MOST LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. GUSTY OUTFLOWS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
* THERE IS ALSO A VERY LOW (5%) CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT/MORNING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING.
* WEDNESDAY - A DRY FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DUE GUSTY WINDS/LOW RH EAST OF CASCADES.
THIS MORNING, LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE PRESENT ALONG THE
COAST. THESE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. INLAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE DRY WEATHER, BREEZY
AFTERNOON WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.
CONDITIONS TREND WARMER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN US WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED
EAST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE, TO THE NORTHWEST AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
SET UP OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY AS A LOW NEAR THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. WELL TO THE SOUTH, ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY, AND SLOWLY ADVECT
NORTHWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR VALLEY EAST OF THE CASCADES AND IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S FOR MOST VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES. EXPECT
CONTINUED BREEZY TO LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOONS
AND EARLY EVENINGS.
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THE TROUGH OFF THE COAST WILL RESULT IN
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND ALLOW SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING MORE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MORESO, ON MONDAY. THE SLIGHT CHANCES
(15%) FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY ARE MAINLY
ACROSS MOUNTAINS EAST OF THE CASCADES, SUCH AS NEAR SUMMER RIM.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A BROADER AREA OF LOW (10%) CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OTHER AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES AND ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THEN, SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM
THE SOUTH. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND DISTURBANCES
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL SLIGHT CHANCES (15%) FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST KLAMATH, LAKE AND FAR
EASTERN MODOC COUNTIES. HOWEVER, A LOW CHANCE (10%) EXTENDS ACROSS
OTHER EAST SIDE AREAS AND ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ZONES. THERE
IS ALSO A VERY LOW CHANCE (5%) FOR OVERNIGHT/MORNING ISOLATED,
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE MOVES UP INTO FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, MAINLY
LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ON TUESDAY, THE TROUGH BEGINS TO NUDGE INLAND AND EXPECT MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER.
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW
DAYTIME HUMIDITIES MAY BRING ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
CURRENTLY, THE FORECAST INDICATES WINDS AND HUMIDITIES REMAIN
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THOUGH, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WEAK FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS A MARINE PUSH ALONG THE COAST AND
INTO THE UMPQUA. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS INLAND AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS MAY COMBINE WITH LOW HUMIDITIES AND RESULT
IN A POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS,
MAINLY EAST OF THE CASCADES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
PATTERN WITH ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS.
AVIATION...03/12Z TAFS
A SOLID MARINE LAYER WILL PERSIST THROUGH
LATE THIS MORNING, WITH IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS FROM AROUND CAPE
BLANCO NORTHWARD, INCLUDING AT NORTH BEND. THESE CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD
INTO THE COQUILLE AND TO NEAR ELKTON, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTHWEST OF ROSEBURG. THESE CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR AND
PROBABLY CLEAR TO VFR 18-20Z AS GUSTY N WINDS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BREEZES.
MARINE...UPDATED 100 AM PDT FRIDAY, JULY 3, 2026
GUSTY NORTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
COVERS ONGOING STEEP SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO INTO EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS WILL SPREAD STEEP
SEAS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. TO THE SOUTH, VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS
SEAS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CURRENT FORECASTS SHOW LOCALIZED GALE
GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM PORT ORFORD SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE HAVE ADDED A HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FOR
AREAS FROM PORT ORFORD SOUTHWARD GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY
STEEP SEAS AND LOCALIZED GALES.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE ON MONDAY. THEN, STEEP WESTERLY SWELL
MAY ARRIVE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT SATURDAY
FOR PZZ356-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
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