521
FXUS66 KMFR 040557
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1056 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS
AVIATION...04/06Z TAFS
CLEAR SKIES OVER INLAND AREAS LOOK TO
SUPPORT VFR LEVELS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH BREEZY WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MARINE STRATUS HAS BROUGHT MVFR
CEILINGS TO NORTH BEND WITH IFR LEVELS AT BROOKINGS AS OF THIS
DISCUSSION. THESE CEILINGS LOOK TO STAY NEAR IFR/MVFR THRESHOLDS
OVERNIGHT, WITH CLEARING EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AT NORTH BEND SHORTLY AFTER MARINE STRATUS CLEARS. -TAD
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 255 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2026/
KEY POINTS...
* LOW IMPACT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY.
* SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, PEAKING SUNDAY.
* NO PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
* SUNDAY/MONDAY - SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND EAST SIDE, MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN
KLAMATH/LAKE COUNTIES
* WEDNESDAY - DRY FRONT RAISES POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR GUSTY WINDS/LOW RH EAST OF CASCADES.
DISCUSSION...SUMMER CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD
SLIGHTLY AND TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER TO JUST A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL WEAKEN AND EXPAND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, BUT ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE IN THE WEEKEND, KEEPING
THE RIDGE SUBDUED SOME. MEANWHILE, WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA, LEAVING THE AREA UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WE DON'T EXPECT IMPACTFUL WEATHER THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER OVER THE WEEKEND, PEAKING AROUND 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (UPPER 80S EAST/MID 90S WEST). WE DON'T
EXPECT ANY HEAT RELATED IMPACTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE SHOULD
GET THROUGH MOST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH FAIRLY BENIGN/TYPICAL
WEATHER.
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE DESSERT
SOUTHWEST, WE'VE BEEN SCRUTINIZING THE PATTERN FOR ANY DAYS WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS OR THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS/LOW RH COULD BE A
CONCERN. DETAILS ARE BECOMING CLEARER, AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE WE
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WE'LL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THAT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
MOISTURE AND ENERGY THAT MOVES INTO THE MID-LATTITUDES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, AND MODELS SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IN THE REGION
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE BETTER AGREEMENT IS FOR AREA ACROSS
NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES, PRIMARILY FROM CHEMULT EASTWARD,
BUT THESE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERNS TEND TO INCREASE THE RISK ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS WELL. INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY LACKING FOR
TUESDAY, SO THIS DAY LOOKS LESS CONCERNING FOR THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.
ON WEDNESDAY, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A WEAKENING FRONT TO
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. A DEEP MARINE PUSH IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THIS FRONT MOVES INLAND AND IT'S POSSIBLE THERE
COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT REALLY FALLS APART, HOWEVER, AS IT MOVES INLAND,
SO THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY GO UNNOTICED FOR MOST FOLKS. TEMPERATURE
WILL TREND COOLER BY A FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY, BUT NO WHERE NEAR
AS MILD AS WE'VE SEEN OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO. THE BIGGER IMPACT
FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE ENHANCED AFTERNOON WINDS THAT POTENTIALLY
COMBINE WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES AND RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
EAST OF THE CASCADES. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES. /BR-Y
MARINE...UPDATED 1200 PM PDT FRIDAY, JULY 3, 2026...GUSTY NORTH
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
MAINTAINING STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS. CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
IMPROVED TODAY AS WINDS ARE LOWER COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND MAINTAIN STEEP
SEAS SOUTH OF PORT ORFORD INTO EARLY SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WORSEN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE. STEEP SEAS WILL RETURN
TO AREAS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO WITH VERY STEEP SEAS DEVELOPING SOUTH
OF CAPE BLANCO AND BEYOND 5 NM FROM SHORE. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH
BETWEEN 10 AND 30 NM FROM SHORE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NORTH WINDS
WEAKEN. /BR-Y
FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OREGON, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR NORTHERN/EASTERN KLAMATH
AND NORTHERN LAKE COUNTIES ON SUNDAY EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE REGARDS WHETHER THE
EXTENT OF THE RISK IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE SIMILAR OR LESS
THAN THAT OF SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON. IT ALSO BEARS MENTIONING THAT
THERE ARE ALSO A SMALL MINORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT EXTEND A
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORM RISK INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON ON EITHER
DAY.
OTHERWISE, HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, RIDGE TOP HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN MODERATE,
AND AFTERNOON BREEZES REMAIN TYPICAL TO SLIGHTLY ENHANCED DURING THE
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY DRY CONDITIONS NEAR CRITICAL
WIND AND HUMIDITY THRESHOLDS, ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH A DRY COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, BUT EAST SIDE BREEZES AND LOW MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES MAY NUDGE ACROSS CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. ALSO, GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT COASTAL RIDGES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH SUNDAY, STRONGEST EARLY ON SUNDAY.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT MONDAY
FOR PZZ356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 2 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
PZZ350-370.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 2 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.
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