044
FXUS66 KMFR 042146
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
246 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2026
UPDATE...FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION UPDATED
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 230 PM PDT SATURDAY, JULY 4, 2026
THERE
IS A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EAST OF
THE CASCADES, AND MONDAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES AND OVER THE
KLAMATHS AND SISKIYOUS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LINGER ON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING OVER MODOC AND LAKE COUNTIES. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE RAIN WITHIN THE CORES OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT A FEW MORE HIGH BASED STORMS, OR THOSE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE DRIER AIR, COULD PRODUCE VERY LITTLE OR NO RAIN AT
THE SURFACE. ALONG WITH LIGHTNING, GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN FOR ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP (ESPECIALLY THE DRIER ONES).
DUE TO THE INCREASED THREAT OF SCATTERED LIGHTNING AND THE POTENTIAL
DRY THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A RED FLAG WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FWZS 624 AND 625, GENERALLY IN THE AREAS EAST OF
BEATTY AND SOUTH OF SILVER LAKE. IF CONVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE
NIGHT, THE RED FLAG MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OUT LATER TO COVER THAT
NOCTURNAL THREAT. DETAILS CAN BE FOUND AT PDXRFWMFR.
OTHERWISE, HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, AND AFTERNOON BREEZES REMAIN TYPICAL TO SLIGHTLY ENHANCED
DURING THE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY DRY CONDITIONS,
GENERALLY JUST SHY OF CRITICAL WIND AND HUMIDITY THRESHOLDS,
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION. ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 120 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2026/
KEY POINTS...
* LOW IMPACT WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY TODAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
* SUNDAY/MONDAY - SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND EAST SIDE, MOST LIKELY ACROSS LAKE/MODOC COUNTIES.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS IN SAME AREAS.
* WEDNESDAY - DRY FRONT RAISES POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
GUSTY WINDS/LOW RH EAST OF CASCADES.
* TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY, SUBTLE COOLING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION...TYPICAL SUMMER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE JULY
4TH HOLIDAY ACTIVITIES TODAY. SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION
WITH SOME LINGERING MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST THAT IS
GRADUALLY CLEARING. IT'LL FEEL QUITE WARM TODAY COMPARED TO THE
RECENT MILD TEMPERATURES WE'VE EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY,
RESULTING IN MID 90S FOR THE WEST SIDE AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S
ACROSS THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN/ROSEBURG AREA DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING.
THERE WILL BE SOME CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON,
PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING FOR
THOSE FIREWORK CELEBRATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE
COAST WHERE MARINE STRATUS WILL RETURN THIS EVENING, POSSIBLY AS
EARLY AS 8 PM BUT MORE LIKELY AROUND 10 PM.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE DESERT SW AND BROAD LOW
PRESSURE PERSISTS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS LEAVES OUR AREA
UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ADDITIONALLY, SOME
REMNANT ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL GET SWEPT UP INTO THE MID-
LATITUDES TODAY, MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. WE'LL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THAT MOISTURE AND ENERGY
AND MODELS REMAIN STEADFAST IN SHOWING ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION, RESULTING IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST
OF THE CASCADES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CURRENT HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER MODOC/LAKE COUNTIES,
WITH SOME LESSER CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY.
STORMS COULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER LAKE/MODOC
COUNTIES BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES THE SLIGHT CHANCE POTENTIAL. BY TUESDAY, THE BEST
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHIFTS NORTHWARD AND WE COULD SEE SOME
LINGERING CHANCES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN KLAMATH/LAKE COUNTIES, BUT THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE DESERT SW RETROGRADES SOME AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL SEND A FEW SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE PACNW DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PUT THE REGION UNDER WESTERLY
FLOW AND A MORE STABLE AIR MASS, SO AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE
THUNDERSTORMS DROP OUT OF THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY. THERE WOULD
LIKELY BE A DEEP MARINE PUSH TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE/DRY FRONT AND WE'LL SEE A SUBTLE COOLING TREND ON
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS (MID-
UPPER 80S FOR WEST SIDE/LOW-MID 80S FOR EAST SIDE). THIS WOULD ALSO
LIKELY BRING SOME ENHANCE AFTERNOON/EVENING BREEZES, WHICH COULD
BRING SOME HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EAST OF THE CASCADES.
RINSE AND REPEAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH ANOTHER DRY
FRONT POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION...04/18Z TAFS...IFR/MFR MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS EXTEND
INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS AND THE UMPQUA BASIN, BUT WILL BURN BACK TO
THE COAST BY 20-21 UTC. MEANWHILE, IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS WILL PERSIST A BIT LONGER, PERHAPS EVEN
LINGERING THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BUT NOT AS
EXTENSIVE. OTHERWISE, VFR CONTINUES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA, WITH WIDESPREAD BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS, AND A FEW AFTERNOON
CUMULUS BUILDUPS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT SATURDAY, JULY 4, 2026...GUSTY NORTH
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, MAINTAINING STEEP TO VERY
STEEP SEAS. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO
AND MAINTAIN STEEP SEAS SOUTH OF PORT ORFORD THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WORSEN THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS NORTH WINDS
INCREASE. STEEP SEAS WILL RETURN TO AREAS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO WITH
VERY STEEP SEAS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND BEYOND 5 NM FROM
SHORE. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH BETWEEN 10 AND 30 NM FROM SHORE. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING, THEN
IMPROVE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS NORTH WINDS WEAKEN.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ624-625.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT MONDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
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