695
FXUS66 KMFR 061256
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
556 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2026
DISCUSSION
WE HAD ROUGHLY 325 CLOUD TO GROUND FLASHES SUNDAY EVENING
ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK WITH THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE LIGHTNING IN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES. THERE
WAS SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN MODOC COUNTY, YET NOTHING
PUSHED WEST OF THE CASCADES. STORMS WERE WETTER AND NOT MOVING
THAT FAST, HOWEVER, A FEW SURFACE STATIONS REPORTED WIND GUSTS
AROUND 45 MPH DUE TO SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM THE HEAVIER
RAIN AND THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. THE STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS
MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME STRATIFORM RAIN CONTINUING THIS MORNING.
THE OUTFLOW FROM THOSE STORMS KICKED OFF A FEW SHOWERS WEST OF THE
CASCADES WITH JUST ENOUGH RAIN TO WET THE GROUND HERE AT THE
OFFICE.
MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HIGH RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE FORECAST(HREF) IS
AGAIN PREDICTING A HIGH PROBABILITY(~70%) OF CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WITHIN 20 KM OF A POINT WITHIN NORTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH
COUNTIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE
POTENTIAL ENERGY(CAPE) WITH VALUES AROUND 300-600 J/KG. UPPER
LEVEL SHEAR ISN'T GREAT, SO WE'RE LOOKING AT POP UP STORMS FOR
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME LARGER HAIL AROUND 0.75
INCHES CAN'T BE RULED OUT AS IT LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THE STORMS WERE
PRODUCING THAT AT TIMES SUNDAY EVENING ACCORDING TO THE MAXIMUM
ESTIMATED SIZE OF HAIL(MESH) FROM THE MULTI RADAR MULTI
SENSOR(MRMS) SYSTEM. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH SEEM THE MOST LIKELY
GIVEN THE INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON.
EVENTUALLY, A TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF ALASKA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HREF AND ENSEMBLES HINT AT
MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL OREGON. SOME OF THOSE STORMS
MAY TOUCH PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.
IT LOOKS LIKE A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE OREGON
COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND DISSIPATE BEFORE IT CAN PUSH ONSHORE BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. IN ANY CASE, IT WILL BE BREEZY JUST GIVEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND TEMPERATURES MIGHT TREND A FEW DEGREES LOWER
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENTLY MEDFORDS'S(MFR)
HIGH SHOULD TREND 5 DEGREES LOWER FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING AT THE END OF THE WEEK, WE'RE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN,
WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES AND THE WEATHER IN CHECK. HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HEADING TOWARDS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE
TROUGHING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH AN ASSOCIATED DRY COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
TROUGH IS STILL UNCERTAIN, ALTHOUGH ONE WOULD THINK SOME
RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NBM
DOES NOT AGREE WITH THAT OPINION RIGHT NOW AND IS KEEPING US WELL
IN THE MID 90'S.
-SMITH
AVIATION...06/12Z TAFS
RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. WE'LL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AROUND LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES. GUSTY WINDS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KLAMATH FALLS(KLMT). ALONG THE
COAST, LIFR CEILINGS WILL COVER PORTIONS OF THE COAST THIS
MORNING. THOSE CEILINGS WILL BURN OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
THEY FILL BACK IN LATER TONIGHT.
-SMITH
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT MONDAY, JULY 6, 2026
A SLIGHT RISE
IN WESTERLY SWELL WITH WIND WAVE SEAS WILL SUPPORT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY. STEEP SEAS LOOK TO BE LIMITED TO WATERS
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CURRENTLY, NORTHERLY WINDS START TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS MAY BRING ADDITIONAL AREAS OF UNSETTLED SEAS TO AREA WATERS
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. -TAD/SMITH
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 1200 PM PDT SUNDAY, JULY 5, 2026
WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT WEEK, WITH TYPICAL
AFTERNOON BREEZES EACH DAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS OF CONCERN:
THE FIRST THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW EAST OF THE CASCADES,
WHERE ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED, AND THE SECOND BEING TWO DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGES THAT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH TO PORTIONS
OF THE AREA.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE
CASCADES, FOCUSED MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNT. Y AND
EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY. SOME ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
EAST OF THE CASCADES, AND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, INCLUDING THE
KLAMATHS, SISKIYOUS, AND WARNERS. THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE TODAY,
SO WHILE RAIN IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE CORES OF MOST OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS, A FEW MORE HIGH BASED STORMS, OR THOSE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE DRIER AIR, COULD PRODUCE VERY LITTLE OR NO RAIN AT
THE SURFACE. ALONG WITH PLENTY OF LIGHTNING, GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
OF UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE A CONCERN FOR ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
(ESPECIALLY THE DRIER ONES). ALSO, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LINGER ON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING OVER LAKE COUNTY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON, THIS
TIME FOCUSED A BIT FARTHER NORTH OVER NORTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH
COUNTIES. MORE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE THEN, SO DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LESS LIKELY, BUT STILL POSSIBLE. ALSO, WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO OVER THE REST OF THE EAST SIDE AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. AGAIN, LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BOTH
AFTERNOONS, AND DETAILS CAN BE FOUND AT PDXRFWMFR.
OTHERWISE, HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, AND AFTERNOON BREEZES REMAIN TYPICAL TO SLIGHTLY ENHANCED
DURING THE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY DRY CONDITIONS,
GENERALLY JUST SHY OF CRITICAL WIND AND HUMIDITY THRESHOLDS,
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AND POTENTIALLY AGAIN THIS
WEEKEND, AS DRY COLD FRONTS PASS THROUGH OR JUST SKIM BY THE REGION.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT TUESDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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