532
FXUS66 KMFR 071110
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
410 AM PDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY POINTS
LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON.
TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM SUMMER DAY FOR SOUTHERN OREGON AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS AND AROUND THE MID 90'S. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
OF SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND NORTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE SPC HIGH RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE
FORECAST IS KEEPING THE PROBABILITY OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
UNDER 10%, SO LIGHTNING WILL NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE, YET UNLIKELY.
OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE SOME WEDNESDAY AS IT APPEARS A
DISSIPATING DRY COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE REGION DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A 500 MB SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
TREND A BIT LOWER WEDNESDAY WEST OF THE CASCADES COMPARED TO
TUESDAY BASED ON THE LATEST NBM FORECAST.
BY THURSDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THE
WEATHER REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. A STRONGER
MORE WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AROUND THE
WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE DRY. A FEW ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SATURDAY IN THE
FORECAST. THE POP FORECAST GRADUALLY INCREASES BY MONDAY WITH SOME
RIDGING WELL TO OUR EAST AND TROUGHING IN THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL
GIVE US SOME DEEPER MOISTURE ACCESS AND POTENTIALLY BRING
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
LASTLY, THE EXTREME FORECAST INDEX ISN'T PICKING UP ON ANYTHING
EXCEPTIONAL OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. PRETTY TYPICAL WEATHER FOR
SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR MID JULY.
AVIATION...07/12Z TAFS
MARINE STRATUS AND FOG COVERS THE
ENTIRE COAST THIS MORNING. LIFR AND IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE BURNING OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR THE MARINE STRATUS TO PUSH INLAND AGAIN
LATER TONIGHT.
MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT TUESDAY, JULY 7, 2026
A FRESH
SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE ON THURSDAY, WHICH MAY CAUSE A BROADER AREA OF STEEP SEAS
WITH VERY STEEP SEAS LIKELY SOUTH OF PORT ORFORD.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
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