078
FXUS66 KMFR 071906
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1206 PM PDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY POINTS
* LOW CHANCE (10-15 PERCENT) OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM CRATER LAKE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
* TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK.
* GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITIES POSSIBLE EAST OF THE
CASCADES THIS WEEKEND.
* IN THE LONG TERM, A PATTERN CHANGE MAY BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. IN THIS OUTCOME, EAST SIDE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF MARINE
LAYER STRATUS ALONG THE COAST, WHICH HAS BURNED BACK FROM FILLING
ALL OF THE COASTAL VALLEYS AND MUCH OF THE UMPQUA BASIN THIS
MORNING. ALSO, CUMULUS FIELDS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE CASCADE
CREST. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ON YET ANOTHER
RELATIVELY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY.
SOUTHERN OREGON AND FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA REMAIN UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, BETWEEN A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA, AND BROAD STRONG
RIDGING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER IN OUR AREA FAIRLY STABLE, WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, BUT THERE ARE A FEW CAVEATS.
THE FIRST IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE
NORTH, AND TO SOME AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME RESIDUAL ENERGY,
MOISTURE, AND INSTABILITY REMAIN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
FROM YESTERDAY, AND THIS HAS ALREADY BROUGHT SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT TO THAT AREA AS EARLY AS 10 AM THIS MORNING. LIKELY,
NOTHING WILL DEVELOP, AND IF IT DOES, IT WILL BE HIGHLY ISOLATED
WITH LITTLE IMPACT, BUT IT IS, AS WE SAY, A NON-ZERO CHANCE.
SECOND, WE WILL SEE THE PASSAGE OF A DRY COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY.
LITTLE WILL MARK THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTS, OTHER THAN A STRONG
MARINE PUSH, AS THEY WILL BE DISSIPATING OR WEAKENING QUITE A BIT
BEFORE EVEN MAKING IT ONSHORE, BUT WE DO EXPECT SOME INCREASED
WINDS TUESDAY AND TO A LESSER EXTENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TODAY
LOOKS LIKE THE BREEZIER DAY, WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS BUT DRIER
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. THEN, AFTER A RATHER MUNDANE THURSDAY,
ANOTHER DRY FRONT ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND, LIKELY WITH STRONGER WINDS
AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS.
THERE ARE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THAT ARISE DURING THESE
PERIODS, AS VERY DRY AIR WILL FLOW IN AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS. MOST
CONCERNS WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE EAST SIDE, IN PARTICULAR
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY AND MODOC COUNTY, BUT OTHER LOCATIONS SUCH AS
THE ROGUE AND SHASTA VALLEYS WILL BE BREEZY AND DRY AS WELL.
LOOKING BEYOND THIS WEEKEND, MODEL SUITES SHOW THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
STRENGTHENING ALOFT AS THE OFFSHORE TROUGH DIGS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND
THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS NORTH. THIS
WOULD ESSENTIALLY SET UP A CLASSIC MONSOONAL PATTERN THAT COULD
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA, BUT IT IS FAR TOO
SOON TO KNOW THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS OVER THE COMING DAYS AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY.
AVIATION (18Z TAFS)
A MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY KEEP KOTH UNDER OVERCAST MVFR CEILINGS
THROUGH MOST OF THIS CYCLE WITH SOME RELIEF THIS AFTERNOON TO A
BROKEN LAYER. FARTHER INLAND, ALL TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNDER
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS CYCLE WITH ONE CAVEAT. THE MARINE LAYER
WILL LIKELY BE STRONG ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO BRING MVFR CEILINGS TO
KRBG AGAIN. OTHERWISE, EXPECTING TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND SPEEDS
TODAY/TONIGHT.
-GUERRERO
MARINE...UPDATED 1200 PM PDT MONDAY, JULY 7, 2026
MODERATE NORTH
WINDS CONTINUE SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN STEEP SEAS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE THERMAL TROUGH INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY, WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND VERY STEEP SEAS EXPECTED SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO,
AND AREAS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS SPREADING NORTH TO
CAPE ARAGO. WINDS INCREASE FURTHER THURSDAY, WITH BRIEF GALES
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH. THE THERMAL TROUGH WEAKENS FRIDAY, BUT
THEN RETURNS WITH ADDITIONAL NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS BY LATE
WEEKEND.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY
TO 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
PZZ350-370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
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