946
FXUS66 KMFR 241041
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
341 AM PDT FRI JUL 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
WEEK AHEAD. DRY AIR ALOFT LOOKS TO KEEP MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST.
* GUSTY WINDS IN THE SCOTT AND SHASTA VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY ARE
BRINGING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER TROUGH AROUND A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL GUIDE
AREA CONDITIONS TODAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH THIS ORIENTATION,
SEASONABLE WARMTH CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRIER AIR, KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST. AS THE CUTOFF LOW TRIES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND THE HIGH
STAYS IN PLACE, AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS. THIS PATTERN WILL HELP TO KEEP
WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM ACCUMULATING IN THE AREA. FOR TODAY, THE
POSITION OF THE CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO LINE UP WITH THE SHASTA AND
SCOTT VALLEYS, BRINGING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON GUSTS TO APPROACH
35-40 MPH TODAY. SIMILAR GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE CASCADES
AS WELL, WITH TERRAIN IN SOUTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES SEEING
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. THIS COMBINATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY
WINDS IS BRINGING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THESE AREAS,
ADDRESSED BY A RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE OTHER WEST SIDE VALLEYS ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE
WARNING, CONCERNS ARE CERTAINLY STILL ELEVATED. ONGOING DRY
CONDITIONS AND GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH ARE STILL CAPABLE OF HELPING A
FIRE SPREAD QUICKLY. PLEASE SEE RFWMFR OR THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE CUTOFF LOW STARTS TO PUSH NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND, BRINGING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING EAST
OF THE CASCADES. WINDS FOR THE SHASTA AND SCOTT VALLEYS EASE
SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, TAKING THOSE AREAS OUT OF THE
WARNING BUT BY NO MEANS ELIMINATING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE
WARNING MAY BE EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
CASCADES, DEPENDING ON EXPECTED WIND GUSTS. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS
GUSTS EASING SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY, BUT HIGH-RES DATA AVAILABLE LATER
TODAY WILL AID IN DETERMINING THE NEED FOR THE WARNING TO CONTINUE.
WITH THE CUTOFF LARGELY OUT OF THE PICTURE BY MONDAY, THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS UNEVENTFUL. A GENERAL PATTERN OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST/MIDWEST UNITED STATES AND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS PASSING OVER WASHINGTON STATE/CANADA SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE.
COMPARING THE GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC OUTCOMES, THE ONLY REAL
DISAGREEMENT IS THE ECMWF IMAGERY SHOWS THE HIGH PRESSURE'S
INFLUENCE NUDGING CLOSER TO THE AREA AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES AT
SEASONABLE LEVELS. GFS IMAGERY SHOWS THOSE PASSING LOWS KEEPING THE
RIDGE AROUND THE CONTINENTAL HIGH FLATTER, RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES
DROPPING JUST BELOW NORMAL. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN A
NON-FACTOR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. -TAD
AVIATION...24/06Z TAFS
OUTSIDE OF KOTH WHERE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT,
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE FOR INLAND TAF SITES. THERE IS
A CHANCE (~30%) FOR RBG TO SEE LOW CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING, BUT AT
THIS TIME HAVE MAINTAINED A VFR CYCLE WITH A SCT DECK AT 1500 FT.
OTHERWISE, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DIURNAL TRENDS IN THE WIND
SPEEDS WITH ENHANCED BREEZES FOR INLAND TAF SITES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
-GUERRERO
MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT FRIDAY, JULY 24, 2026
RELATIVELY
CALM CONDITIONS AND LOW, MIXED SEAS CONTINUE TODAY. SOUTH WINDS
INCREASE SATURDAY AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT, POSSIBLY APPROACHING
SMALL AREAS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO
NORTH AND WEST SUNDAY, BUT WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS PROBABLY HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. -SPILDE/BPN
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 230 AM PDT FRIDAY, JULY 23, 2026
ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS (ILLUSTRATED BY AREAS OF SINGLE-DIGIT
DAYTIME RHS) AND FORECAST GUSTY WINDS ARE BRINGING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS CONCERN WILL BE THE
MOST CONSTANT EAST OF THE CASCADES, WHERE WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35
MPH FOR MOST AREAS AND UP TO 45 MPH OVER TERRAIN IN SOUTHERN LAKE
AND KLAMATH COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF
TODAY AND SATURDAY. AREAS OF MODERATE TO POOR RECOVERIES IN
EASTERNMOST LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN PLACE FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR FWZS 623, 624, 284, AND 285 FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RHS.
WITH WINDS HAVING A MORE SOUTHERLY ORIENTATION TODAY, CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, INCLUDING
THE SCOTT AND SHASTA VALLEYS. IN THESE AREAS, AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 35 TO 40 MPH TODAY. A RED FLAG
WARNING COVERS FWZS 281 AND PARTS OF 280 THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WINDS IN THESE AREAS EASE SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY, REDUCING
THE NEED FOR A RFW BUT STILL SUPPORTING ELEVATED CONCERNS.
WHILE WARNING CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET IN THE ROGUE AND
UMPQUA VALLEYS, DRY DAYTIME RHS AND PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS IN THE
15-20 MPH RANGE CAN STILL PRESENT CONCERNING CONDITIONS.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MIGHT CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EAST
OF THE CASCADES, ALTHOUGH THE AREAS OF CONCERN ARE NOTABLY
SMALLER. WINDS EASE GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SOME MARGINAL
IMPROVEMENT IN DAYTIME RHS POSSIBLE. -TAD
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY
FOR ORZ624-625.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR CAZ280-281.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY
FOR CAZ284-285.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
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