653
FXUS66 KMFR 250507
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1007 PM PDT FRI JUL 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION SECTION
AVIATION (06 TAFS)
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN MVFR ALONG THE COAST (KOTH), BUT
AT TIMES IFR CONDITIONS MAY COME TO FRUITION AS WELL. INLAND TAF
SITES WILL BE UNDER VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAF PERIOD
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH ENHANCED BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOON.
-GUERRERO
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 346 PM PDT FRI JUL 24 2026/
.NEW AVIATION SECTION
AVIATION (00Z TAFS)...
ALONG THE COAST THERE WILL BE INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING IN THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE INLAND TAF SITES.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ENHANCED BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOON IN
TYPICAL DIURNAL FASHION. WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY.
-GUERRERO
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM PDT FRI JUL 24 2026/
KEY MESSAGES...
* DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND WITH CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES.
* SMOKE WILL IMPACT NORTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES BASED ON
THE LATEST FIRE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.
* TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW CONTINUES
TO SPIN 200 TO 300 MILES OFF THE OREGON COAST. A NEW WILD FIRE
HAS DEVELOPED IN EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY SOMETIME LAST NIGHT AND
CONTINUES TO BURN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME INTENSITY. MOST OF
THIS SMOKE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST THIS EVENING
BASED ON THE WIND FORECASTS.
GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO A CONCERN WITH SOME SPOTTY GUSTS TO 45 MPH
EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW RAWS SITES HAVE
REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH EAST OF THE CASCADES ALREADY. WE
SHOULD SEE THOSE INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH CONTINUED MIXING AND
SURFACE HEATING.
BY TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, THIS SURFACE LOW WILL BE
INGESTED BY THE NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH AND START TO MOVE INTO
WASHINGTON. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY AND SOUTH WESTERLY WINDS WILL
COVER THE REGION INTO SATURDAY. LUCKILY, NO FIRES TO OUR
SOUTHWEST SHOULD MEAN PRETTY CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST OF US AS THE
AIR IS UNUSUALLY DRY FOR SOUTHERN OREGON AND PARTS OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. NORTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES COULD BE THE
EXCEPTION TO THAT RULE. SOME COASTAL STRATUS WILL ALSO LINGER
ALONG THE OREGON COAST WITH VERY FEW CLOUDS MAKING IT INLAND.
THE TROUGH THAT KICKED THE LOW OUT FRIDAY EVENING WILL PUSH SOME
ENERGY INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS KEEPS OUR AREA UNDER A STRONGER SOUTH WEST FLOW
ALOFT AS A RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90'S HERE IN MEDFORD.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, NOTHING REALLY STANDS OUT WEATHER WISE AS
UNUSUAL. ONE COULD CONSIDER IT AS NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER FOR OUR
REGION WITH HIGHS IN LOWER 90'S HERE IN MEDFORD. TEMPERATURES DO
START TO TREND WARMER TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK BASED ON THE
LATEST FORECAST. THE NAEFS 500 MB PERCENTILES DO SHOW US IN THE
90TH PERCENTILE TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND, SO WE'LL PROBABLY BE PUSHING
INTO THE UPPER 90'S OR PERHAPS 100 HERE IN MEDFORD NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION...24/18Z TAFS...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE COAST WHERE IFR
CONDITIONS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND LIFR CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE
CAPE WILL WAVER ON AND OFFSHORE TODAY, MOST PERSISTENT SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE DAY NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO,
BUT SINCE THE MARINE LAYER WILL HOVER JUST OFFSHORE, IT WILL BE
QUICK TO RETURN THIS EVENING. SOME OF THIS MARINE LAYER COULD MAKE
IT INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN, RESULTING IN PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
ROSEBURG TAF AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP AREA WIDE AROUND
21-23Z, STRONGEST EAST OF THE CASCADES AND ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. WINDS WILL EASE AFTER SUNSET. /BR-Y
MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT FRIDAY, JULY 24, 2026...OVERALL, SUB-
ADVISORY CONDITIONS UNDER LIGHT SOUTH THROUGH WESTERLY WINDS AND
SEAS AT OR BELOW 5-6 FT ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTH
WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A DRY
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO, AND WHILE THIS WILL BE SHORTLIVED, IT
COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED AREAS OF LOW END STEEP SEAS NORTH OF BANDON
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS COULD RETURN
AROUND MID-WEEK. /BR-Y
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 230 PM PDT FRIDAY, JULY 24, 2026...
ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS (ILLUSTRATED BY AREAS OF SINGLE-DIGIT DAYTIME
RHS) AND FORECAST GUSTY WINDS ARE BRINGING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS CONCERN WILL BE THE MOST CONSTANT
EAST OF THE CASCADES, WHERE WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH FOR MOST
AREAS AND UP TO 45 MPH OVER TERRAIN IN SOUTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH
COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF TODAY AND
SATURDAY. AREAS OF MODERATE TO POOR RECOVERIES IN EASTERNMOST LAKE
AND MODOC COUNTIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A RED FLAG WARNING
IS IN PLACE FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FWZS
623, 624, 284, AND 285 FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RHS.
WITH WINDS HAVING A MORE SOUTHERLY ORIENTATION TODAY, CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, INCLUDING
THE SCOTT AND SHASTA VALLEYS. IN THESE AREAS, AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 35 TO 40 MPH TODAY. A RED FLAG WARNING COVERS
FWZS 281 AND PARTS OF 280 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS IN THESE
AREAS EASE SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY, REDUCING THE NEED FOR A RFW BUT
STILL SUPPORTING ELEVATED CONCERNS.
WHILE WARNING CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET IN THE ROGUE AND
UMPQUA VALLEYS, DRY DAYTIME RHS AND PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS IN THE 15-
20 MPH RANGE CAN STILL PRESENT CONCERNING CONDITIONS.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EAST OF THE CASCADES, AND WE'VE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE PREDICTING HUMIDITIES TO TREND SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WHEN COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH AREA IS ALSO SMALLER AND COVERS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
FWZ 624 AND MOST OF FWZ 285. -TAD/SMITH
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ624-625.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
BELOW 500 FEET FOR ORZ624.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ284-285.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
BELOW 500 FEET FOR CAZ285.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
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