045
FXUS66 KMFR 251737
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1037 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
AVIATION...25/18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION
TO VFR WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND TO THE COASTAL RANGES
WHERE A WEAK FRONT MOVING INLAND IS MAINTAINING SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MVFR CEILINGS. THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY TO BE SHORTLIVED. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT, EXPECT THE RETURN OF MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ALONG
THE COAST AS WELL AS INLAND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN, INCLUDING NORTH
BEND AND ROSEBURG. /BR-Y
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 508 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026/
KEY MESSAGES...
* ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS SUPPORT A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES CONTINUING INTO THIS
EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PARTS OF MODOC AND SOUTHWEST
LAKE COUNTIES HIGHLIGHT AN AREA WHERE CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY
BE PRESENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* DRY CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED AFTERNOON BREEZES WEST OF THE
CASCADES CAN STILL SUPPORT FIRE DEVELOPMENT, EVEN IF A FULL
WARNING PRODUCT IS NOT IN PLACE.
* SEASONAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
SOME SLIGHT WARMING POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION...A PASSING LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE
BRINGING ELEVATED GUSTY WINDS TO AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES. WITH
ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS, THESE WINDS REPRESENT A CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES (RHS) CONTINUES FOR EAST SIDE AREAS FOR THIS EVENING. IN
THESE AREAS, WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, WITH GUSTS UP
TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE/KLAMATH COUNTY TERRAIN. WEST
OF THE CASCADES, FORECAST WINDS IN PARTS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY HAVE
EASED BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WHILE WARNING CONDITIONS ARE NOT
PRESENT, LOW DAYTIME RHS AND ELEVATED BREEZES OF 15-20 MPH CAN STILL
HELP A FIRE SPREAD QUICKLY AND UNPREDICTABLY. ELEVATED CAUTION IS
ENCOURAGED IN ALL AREAS TODAY. A FIRE WEATHER WARNING REMAINS IN
PLACE IN PARTS OF MODOC AND SOUTHWEST LAKE COUNTIES FOR POSSIBLE
CRITICAL CONDITIONS CONTINUING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ASIDE, THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS LOOK TO REMAIN
SEASONAL ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN A LACK OF CHANGE IN THE UPPER
PATTERN. WITH NEITHER THE CONTINENTAL RIDGE NOR THE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST BUDGING MUCH, SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME MINOR GROWTH IN THE CONTINENTAL RIDGE MAY BRING DAYTIME
HIGHS 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT HAZARDOUS
HEAT IS NOT EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE LITTLE
MOISTURE, KEEPING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST. MINOR
DISTURBANCES OR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING OVER WASHINGTON STATE
AND CANADA MAY BRING BREEZY PERIODS, BUT THERE'S CURRENTLY NO
INDICATION OF ANY EXCEPTIONALLY GUSTY PERIODS. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
MAY ALLOW FOR SMOKE FROM CENTRAL OREGON FIRES TO REACH NORTHERNMOST
LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES, BUT AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL MINIMIZE LONG-
TERM ACCUMULATION. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT SATURDAY, JULY 25, 2026...OVERALL,
SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS UNDER LIGHT SOUTH THROUGH WESTERLY WINDS
AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTH WINDS
BRIEFLY INCREASE THIS MORNING, WHICH MAY BUILD ISOLATED AREAS OF
LOW END STEEP SEAS NORTH OF BANDON THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP SEAS COULD RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 230 AM PDT SATURDAY, JULY 25, 2026...
ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS (ILLUSTRATED BY AREAS OF SINGLE-DIGIT DAYTIME
RHS) AND FORECAST GUSTY WINDS ARE BRINGING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS CONCERN WILL BE THE MOST CONSTANT
EAST OF THE CASCADES, WHERE WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH FOR MOST
AREAS AND UP TO 45 MPH OVER TERRAIN IN SOUTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH
COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. AREAS OF MODERATE TO
POOR RECOVERIES IN EASTERNMOST LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR FWZS 623, 624, 284, AND 285 FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RHS.
FORECAST WINDS HAVE EASED BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AREAS IN
SISKIYOU COUNTY, BUT AFTERNOON WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND DRY DAYTIME
RHS STILL PRESENT CONCERNING CONDITIONS FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
CASCADES.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EAST OF THE CASCADES, AND WE'VE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE PREDICTING HUMIDITIES TO TREND SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WHEN COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH AREA IS ALSO SMALLER AND COVERS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
FWZ 624 AND MOST OF FWZ 285. -TAD/SMITH
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM PDT SUNDAY BELOW 500 FEET FOR
ORZ624.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ284-285.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM PDT SUNDAY BELOW 500 FEET FOR
CAZ285.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
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