941
FXUS66 KMFR 252034
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
134 PM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. NO AIR QUALITY CONCERNS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.
* HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL BEFORE WARMING INTO
THE UPPER 90'S FOR SOME AREAS FRIDAY.
* DRY WEATHER PERSISTS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
COASTAL STRATUS HAS PUSHED FARTHER INLAND TODAY AS THE LOW AND
TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC IS STARTING TO PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS IS RESULTING IN SOME DEEPER WEST TO SOUTH WEST
FLOW FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. THE SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN CENTRAL
OREGON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTH EAST UNDER THIS
PATTERN. WE'RE ALSO WATCHING THE CASTLE FIRE IN EASTERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY PRODUCE SOME SMOKE. GIVEN THE LOWER INTENSITY OF THE BURN,
AIR QUALITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE AN ISSUE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR NORTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES. THE HRRR SMOKE
MODEL DOES HAVE THE PLUME HITTING DIAMOND LAKE LATER THIS EVENING,
SO PERHAPS AIR QUALITY WILL DECREASE THERE BRIEFLY.
BY SUNDAY, MODELS HAVE MORE TROUGHING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH
THE USUAL FOUR CORNERS HIGH FARTHER EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL KEEP US UNDER DEEPER SOUTH
WEST TO WESTERLY FLOW AND KEEP OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL IF NOT A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, A SHORT WAVE WILL SWING INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH NO ANTICIPATED WEATHER IMPACTS DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
MOVE THROUGH BY TUESDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD TIGHTEN DURING
THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH WINDS DON'T TREND UPWARDS ACCORDING TO THE NBM.
ONE WOULD THINK IT WOULD BE A BIT BREEZY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS TO 20 AND 25 MPH ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS THEME OF SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE DEEPER WAVE IN THE GULF
OF ALASKA CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH THE AIR REMAINS TOO
DRY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS HERE. EVENTUALLY, THIS DEEPER WAVE
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE EASTWARDS FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INLAND. SADLY, IT
NEVER GETS HERE AND WE'LL STAY IN THE 90'S INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
HEAT RISK DOES MOVE INTO THE MODERATE RANGE AROUND THE SHASTA
VALLEY FRIDAY AS HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO HIT THE UPPER 90'S.
OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR WEATHER IMPACTS THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...25/18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION
TO VFR WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND TO THE COASTAL RANGES
WHERE A WEAK FRONT MOVING INLAND IS MAINTAINING SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MVFR CEILINGS. THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY TO BE SHORTLIVED. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT, EXPECT THE RETURN OF MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ALONG
THE COAST AS WELL AS INLAND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN, INCLUDING NORTH
BEND AND ROSEBURG. /BR-Y
MARINE...UPDATED 1230 PM PDT SATURDAY, JULY 25, 2026
OVERALL, SUB-
ADVISORY CONDITIONS UNDER LIGHT SOUTH THROUGH WESTERLY WINDS AND LOW
SEAS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL BE A MIX OF FRESH
SHORT PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL AND LOW LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL. NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP SEAS COULD RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK. /BR-Y
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 230 PM PDT SATURDAY, JULY 25, 2026
ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS (ILLUSTRATED BY AREAS OF SINGLE-DIGIT DAYTIME
RHS) AND FORECAST GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS CONCERN WILL BE
THE MOST CONSTANT EAST OF THE CASCADES, WHERE WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO
40 MPH FOR MOST AREAS AND UP TO 45 MPH OVER TERRAIN IN SOUTHERN
LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS SOME POOR RECOVERIES IN
EASTERNMOST LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A
RED FLAG WARNING IS IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FWZS 623,
624, 284, AND 285 FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RHS.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA,
ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER HUMIDITIES ARE KEEPING THE FIRE WEATHER RISK
LOWER IN THOSE AREAS. IN ANY CASE, IT WILL STILL BE A GUSTY DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 PRETTY COMMON AROUND
THE REGION.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
WITHIN FWZS 624 AND 285. WE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH AND
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED ZONES. THIS
WARNING IS MORE BORDERLINE BASED ON THE DATA WE SAW THIS MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IN THE WINDS AND GUSTS OF 30 MPH IN FWZ 285 IS
ABOUT 50%, ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FWZ 624 SHOULD HIT
WITH RH<15 AND GUSTS >25 MORE LIKELY.
-TAD/SMITH
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ624.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ284-285.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ285.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page