303
FXUS66 KMFR 261253
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
553 AM PDT SUN JUL 26 2026
..AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED
KEY MESSAGES
* CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR SOUTHWEST KLAMATH, SOUTHERN LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES
DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITIES.
* WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TODAY
EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF SMOKE MOVING INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN LAKE
COUNTY LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
* HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL BEFORE WARMING INTO
THE UPPER 90'S FOR SOME AREAS FRIDAY.
* DRY WEATHER PERSISTS THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INLAND, CENTERED TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WITH THIS PATTERN WE WILL REMAIN UNDER SOUTH WEST TO WESTERLY
FLOW. LOW CLOUDS PRESENT ALONG THE COAST AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE
UMPQUA BASIN WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. GUSTY AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS INLAND
AREAS, WITH STRONGEST WINDS EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE COMBINATION
OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BRING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
KLAMATH, SOUTHERN LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES. (PLEASE SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAIL).
ON MONDAY, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
HOWEVER, EXPECT CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS WITH AFTERNOON BREEZY TO
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION (WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 AND 25 MPH).
THIS PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
REMAINING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
TREND WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAK ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 90S FOR MOST AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST IN THE UPPER 90S FOR VALLEYS IN JACKSON, JOSEPHINE AND
WESTERN/CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTIES AND IN THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR
MOST OTHER INLAND VALLEYS.
THEN, THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE EASTWARDS
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS
THE AREA BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEFORE IN MOVES INLAND. SO,
EXPECT CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. ALTHOUGH, LIGHT DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST.
AVIATION...26/12Z TAFS
A MARINE LAYER IS BRINGING MVFR AND LOCAL
IFR TO THE COAST THIS MORNING, INCLUDING AT NORTH BEND. THESE CLOUDS
HAVE SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN WITH MVFR CEILINGS, INCLUDING AT
ROSEBURG. CONDITIONS SHOULD CLEAR TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON FOR BOTH ROSEBURG AND NORTH BEND. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING, BEGINNING
AROUND 03Z. ELSEWHERE, CONDITIONS ARE VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
INLAND TAF SITES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE DIURNAL WINDS WITH
ENHANCED BREEZES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE...UPDATED 1230 PM PDT SATURDAY, JULY 25, 2026
OVERALL, FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS UNDER LIGHT SOUTH
THROUGH WESTERLY WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED. SEAS WILL BE A
MIX OF FRESH SHORT PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL AND LOW LONG PERIOD
SOUTH SWELL. NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS COULD RETURN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NEARLY
ALL WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 AM PDT SUNDAY, JULY 26, 2026
ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOW DAYTIME RH AND FORECAST GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS EAST OF THE
CASCADES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KLAMATH, SOUTHERN LAKE AND MODOC
COUNTIES, WHERE HUMIDITIES OF 8 TO 15 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH UP TO 35 MPH OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR FWZS 624 AND 285 FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RHS.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA,
ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER HUMIDITIES ARE KEEPING THE FIRE WEATHER RISK
LOWER IN THOSE AREAS. IN ANY CASE, IT WILL STILL BE A GUSTY DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH COMMON AROUND
THE REGION.
MONDAY, WINDS TREND SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH CONTINUED LOW RHS IN THE
AFTERNOONS/EARLY EVENINGS FOR MOST INLAND AREAS (EXCEPT FOR
HIGHER HUMIDITIES IN THE UMPQUA). A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY BUT EXPECT CONTINUED DRY WEATHER
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DAYTIME RHS AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY GUSTY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR ORZ624.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR CAZ285.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
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