635
FXUS66 KMFR 262339
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
439 PM PDT SUN JUL 26 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
AVIATION...27/00Z TAFS
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE
UMPQUA BASIN. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST, BEFORE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PUSH INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO LIFR/IFR ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL EASE AFTER SUNSET. CONDITIONS ALONG THE
COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN WILL IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT A
SIMILAR PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. /BR-Y
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 218 PM PDT SUN JUL 26 2026/
KEY MESSAGES...
* A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN PLACE OVER MODOC AND SOUTHWEST LAKE
COUNTY THROUGH 8 PM TONIGHT TO HIGHLIGHT CONTINUING GUSTY WINDS
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.
* WHILE WINDS ARE BELOW CRITERIA IN OTHER AREAS, ENHANCED BREEZES
AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN STILL AFFECT FIRE GROWTH.
* GENERALLY SEASONABLE SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK
AHEAD.
DISCUSSION...ENHANCED WINDS CONTINUE EAST OF THE CASCADES
THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER MODOC AND SOUTHWEST LAKE COUNTIES.
WITH ONGOING CRITICALLY DRY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS THESE GUSTY WINDS,
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN PLACE THROUGH 8 PM TONIGHT FOR THESE
AREAS TO HIGHLIGHT THOSE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. WHILE OTHER AREAS
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE CASCADES ARE NOT SEEING CRITICAL WIND
SPEEDS, ELEVATED AFTERNOON BREEZES AS WELL AS DRY CONDITIONS CAN
STILL ALLOW A FIRE TO SPREAD QUICKLY. PLEASE CONSIDER EXTRA
AWARENESS WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT CAN CREATE SPARKS OR IGNITE DRY
FUELS. FIRE WEATHER ASIDE, TODAY LOOKS TO BE AN OTHERWISE
SEASONABLE DAY.
TYPICAL SUMMER TEMPERATURES AND NORMAL DIURNAL WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BETWEEN A CONTINENTAL RIDGE AND TROUGHS AROUND APPROACHING
PACIFIC LOWS. THE RIDGE IS STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT THESE LOWS FROM
PASSING OVER THE AREA, WHILE THE TROUGHS ARE ABLE TO DO THE SAME.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN A SEASONABLE RANGE, WITH A SLIGHT
NUDGE UPWARDS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE
ADVANCES TOWARDS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES MAY REACH ABOUT 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES. CURRENT
FORECAST HIGHS FOR FRIDAY HAVE THE COAST IN THE LOW 70S, THE UMPQUA
VALLEY FLOOR IN THE HIGH 80S, AND MOST OTHER AREAS IN THE MID TO
HIGH 90S. ISOLATED AREAS OF TRIPLE DIGITS LOOK TO BE LIMITED TO THE
KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY. THOSE EXTRA 5 DEGREES LOOK TO COOL OVER NEXT
WEEKEND.
WHILE SOME SHORTWAVES FOLLOW THAT SOUTHWEST PATTERN, MOST ARE
FORECAST TO TRAVEL TO THE SOUTH. ONE SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE OVER THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY MORNING, WHICH COULD INCREASE WIND SPEEDS
SLIGHTLY. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY IN THIS TIMEFRAME,
WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BUT HARDLY ENOUGH FOR
ANY KIND OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WHILE A FEW LONG-TERM
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT, THEY ARE DEFINITELY IN
THE MINORITY (SUB-10% CHANCES). OVERALL, EXPECTATIONS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE MINIMAL. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 1230 PM PDT SATURDAY, JULY 25, 2026...SUB-
ADVISORY CONDITIONS UNDER LIGHT SOUTH THROUGH WESTERLY WINDS AND
LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE START OF THE WEEK
AHEAD. SEAS WILL BE A MIX OF FRESH SHORT PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL
AND LOW LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL. NORTH WINDS COULD RETURN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY BUILDING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ACROSS AREA WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 230 PM PDT SUNDAY, JULY 26, 2026...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN FWZS 624 AND 285. THIS RED FLAG WARNING IS MORE
BORDERLINE BASED ON THE PROBABILITY OF MEETING CRITICAL VALUES. OUR
LOCAL MOS GUIDANCE BASED OFF OF GFS OUTPUT DOES SUGGEST SOME SITES
REACHING 30 MPH WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON IN FWZ 285 AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF 624. HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO INCH HIGHER ON MONDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WIND GUSTS. THIS THEME WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A LOW OFF THE BC COAST BRINGING DEEPER WEST FLOW OFF
THE PACIFIC. WITH THIS DEEPER WEST FLOW, WE SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME
STRONGER MARINE PUSHES OVERNIGHT WITH GOOD RECOVERIES IN SOME
VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES.
LASTLY, MOST MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH
AROUND THURSDAY. A SMALL GROUP OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN THE ECMWF ARE
PICKING UP ON THUNDERSTORMS AROUND CENTRAL OREGON AND NORTH EASTERN
OREGON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A VERY SMALL MINORITY(2/50) HAVE SOME
ACTIVITY IN OUR FORECAST AREA IN SOUTH WESTERN OREGON. SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
-SMITH
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ624.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ285.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
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