934
FXUS66 KMFR 270751
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1251 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST, WITH GENERALLY SEASONABLE SUMMER
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK AHEAD.
* DAILY MARINE LAYER PUSHES WILL RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST, THE COASTAL VALLEYS, AND AT TIMES,
AS FAR INLAND AS THE UMPQUA BASIN.
DISCUSSION
TYPICAL SUMMER TEMPERATURES AND NORMAL DIURNAL
WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, WITH THE UPPER
FLOW REMAINING FROM THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN A CONTINENTAL RIDGE AND
PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THE RIDGE IS
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE OVERALL PATTERN RATHER STAGNANT,
ALTHOUGH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH OR NEAR THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN A
SEASONABLE RANGE, WITH A SLIGHT NUDGE UPWARDS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE RETROGRADES SLOWLY TOWARDS THE WEST
COAST. TEMPERATURES MAY REACH ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS
FOR FRIDAY HAVE THE COAST IN THE LOW 70S, THE UMPQUA VALLEY FLOOR
IN THE HIGH 80S, AND MOST OTHER AREAS IN THE MID TO HIGH 90S.
ISOLATED AREAS OF TRIPLE DIGITS LOOK TO BE LIMITED TO THE LOWER
KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY. THOSE EXTRA 5 DEGREES LOOK TO COOL OVER NEXT
WEEKEND.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THOUGH MOST ARE
FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO THE SOUTH. WITH A DISTINCT LACK OF
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE, THE WAVES WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE, IF ANY,
CHANCE OF PRODUCING CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION, SO THE ONLY REAL
DISCERNIBLE WEATHER THAT MAY ACCOMPANY THESE IMPULSES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER MARINE PUSHES ALONG THE COAST, AND SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED AFTERNOON WINDS. ONE SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE DIRECTLY OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY, BUT UNLESS THERE IS SOME KIND OF UNFORESEEN
MOISTURE INFLOW TO THE AREA, WHICH IS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE
STRANGLEHOLD THE RIDGE HAS OVER US, EVEN THIS IMPULSE WILL NOT
BRING US ANY RAIN OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
AVIATION...27/12Z TAFS
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND PORTIONS OF
THE UMPQUA BASIN. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PUSH INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING TO LIFR/IFR ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND
IN THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT A
SIMILAR PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. -BPN/BR-Y
MARINE...UPDATED 1230 AM PDT MONDAY, JULY 27, 2026
SUB-
ADVISORY CONDITIONS UNDER LIGHT SOUTH THROUGH WESTERLY WINDS AND LOW
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE START OF THE WEEK AHEAD. SEAS
WILL BE A MIX OF FRESH SHORT PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL AND LOW LONG
PERIOD SOUTH SWELL. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY BUILDING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA
WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 230 AM PDT MONDAY, JULY 27, 2026
HUMIDITIES WILL INCH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WIND
GUSTS. OVERALL, WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A LOW OFF THE BC COAST BRINGING DEEPER WEST FLOW OFF THE
PACIFIC. WITH THIS DEEPER WEST FLOW, WE SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME
STRONGER MARINE PUSHES OVERNIGHT WITH GOOD RECOVERIES IN SOME
VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES.
MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA THIS WEEK. THERE IS VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE FOR
THESE SHORTWAVES TO USE, SO THUNDERSTORM/PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
VERY LOW, WITH LITTLE MORE TO MARK THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVES THAN
SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER MARINE PUSHES AND SLIGHTLY ENHANCED AFTERNOON
WINDS. HOWEVER, A SMALL GROUP OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN THE ECMWF ARE
PICKING UP ON THUNDERSTORMS AROUND CENTRAL OREGON AND NORTH EASTERN
OREGON WITH THE STRONGEST WAVE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A VERY SMALL
MINORITY(2/50) HAVE SOME ACTIVITY IN OUR FORECAST AREA IN SOUTH
WESTERN OREGON. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
-SMITH/BPN
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
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