774
FXUS66 KMFR 272126
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
226 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
DISCUSSION
AN UNIMPACTFUL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE,
KEEPING TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEK AHEAD.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND A
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOWS LITTLE MOVEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST. FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO LOOK OVERALL DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE ARE A FEW MINOR DETAILS OF INTEREST THROUGH
THE WEEK AHEAD.
CALM OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR MORNING SMOKE ACCUMULATION
IN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES AS WELL AS PARTS OF MODOC COUNTY.
DAYTIME WESTERLY BREEZES LOOK TO BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT CONSTANT
ACCUMULATION, BUT THIS PATTERN DOES LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN DETERMINISTIC IMAGERY FOR THURSDAY, AS
WELL AS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. SOME ENSEMBLE
IMAGERY IS SHOWING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE
CASCADES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THESE MEMBERS REPRESENT ABOUT 5% OF
THE ENSEMBLE, SO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS HARDLY EXPECTED.
DAYTIME HIGHS REMAIN AT SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH A
SLIGHT 5-DEGREE WARMUP EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. FORECAST TEMPERATURES
HAVE CREPT UP A DEGREE OR TWO, WITH PARTS OF THE ROGUE AND SHASTA
VALLEYS POSSIBLY HITTING 100 DEGREES. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS STAYING
COOL AND DAYTIME HIGHS DECREASING OVER THE WEEKEND, THERE'S NO
EXPECTATION OF ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS LOW, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EASTWARD. THIS IS MOSTLY A MARINE
CONCERN, BUT SOME INLAND AREAS MAY SEE THESE WINDS AS WELL. WIND
MODELING THIS FAR OUT IS COARSE, BUT THE EASE SIDE, COASTAL AREAS,
AND ELEVATED TERRAIN WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTY WINDS. DEPENDING ON THE
WIND'S ORIENTATION, THE EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY (SHADY COVE TO GOLD
HILL TO ASHLAND) AS WELL AS THE SHASTA VALLEY MAY SEE GUSTY WINDS AS
WELL. -TAD
AVIATION...27/18Z TAFS
VFR LEVELS ARE GENERALLY PRESENT ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON, WITH SCRAPS OF MVFR CEILINGS
OVER BROOKINGS AS OF WRITING THIS DISCUSSION. SMOKE FROM AREA
WILDFIRES REMAINS OVER CENTRAL LAKE AND EASTERNMOST DOUGLAS
COUNTIES, BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP THIS SMOKE AWAY FROM AREA
TERMINALS. MARINE STRATUS LOOKS TO BUILD ALONG THE OREGON COAST THIS
EVENING, WITH IFR OR MVFR LEVELS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
OTHER AREAS WILL SEE VFR LEVELS WITH NORMAL DIURNAL BREEZES THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT MONDAY, JULY 27, 2026
SUB-
ADVISORY CONDITIONS UNDER LIGHT SOUTH THROUGH WESTERLY WINDS AND LOW
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE START OF THE WEEK AHEAD. SEAS
WILL BE A MIX OF FRESH SHORT PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL AND LOW LONG
PERIOD SOUTH SWELL. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE OVER
AREA WATERS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT CURRENTLY STEEP SEAS LOOK TO
BE LIMITED TO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO
AND WITHIN 30 NM FROM SHORE. FOR THE THE END OF THE WEEK, LOCALIZED
AREAS OF STEEP SEAS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.
ON SATURDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH MAY BRING
VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER AREA WATERS. THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THESE WINDS ARE UNCERTAIN, GIVEN A RANGE OF MODEL
OUTCOMES. CURRENT FORECAST WINDS WOULD MAKE PERIODS OF STEEP TO VERY
STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
PLEASE CHECK FOR UPDATES AS WEEKEND DETAILS COME INTO FOCUS. -TAD
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
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