561
FXUS66 KMFR 290540
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1040 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2026
UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS
AVIATION...29/06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL AND WILL
DO SO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A MARINE PUSH
TONIGHT WILL BRING AREAS OF LIFR/IFR CEILINGS TO THE COAST AND MVFR
CEILINGS INLAND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN. THE MARINE LAYER DOESN'T
QUITE LOOK DEEP ENOUGH TO SPILL OVER THE ROGUE-UMQPUA DIVIDE, BUT
THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
JACKSON/JOSEPHINE COUNTIES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER. /BR-Y
MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM PDT TUESDAY, JULY 28, 2026
NORTH WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, REACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA SOUTH OF PORT ORFORD AND BEYOND 10 NM FROM SHORE. THIS WILL
BRING BORDERLINE STEEP SEAS WEDNESDAY, PRIMARILY FROM GOLD BEACH
SOUTHWARD. WINDS EASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH IMPROVED CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
ON SATURDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH MAY BRING
VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER AREA WATERS AS IT TIGHTENS THE
GRADIENT AND ENHANCES THE THERMAL TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THESE WINDS ARE UNCERTAIN, THE LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING
A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS, AND NEARLY A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF STORM FORCE GUSTS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 222 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2026/
KEY MESSAGES...
* SMOKE FROM THE CASTLE FIRE AND MULTIPLE COMPLEXES IN CENTRAL
OREGON WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES.
* VERY LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
* TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO TREND WARMER BY FRIDAY.
* A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES
LOWER INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER
BROAD WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SMOKE AND
LOWER AIR QUALITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. BROADER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP PUSHING SMOKE
FROM THE CASTLE FIRE INTO LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES. ALSO, THE
SMOKE FROM THE COMPLEXES IN CENTRAL OREGON WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE
EAST OF THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT AND THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.
A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SWING THROUGH
SOUTHERN OREGON ON WEDNESDAY. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING
ANY CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH THE NBM 12 HOUR THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY
HAS HINTS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH
COUNTIES. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALSO SHOWING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL OREGON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN ANY CASE,
THE PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUITE LOW AND AROUND
5-10%. SOME MAY IN FACT FORM OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS WELL.
THAT SAME STORY CONTINUES ON THURSDAY WITH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN OREGON. THE 12Z GFS AND SMALL NUMBER OF
ENSEMBLES ARE INITIATING CONVECTION EAST OF THE CASCADES AND
AROUND OUR BORDER IN CENTRAL OREGON. THE WAVE ON THURSDAY LOOKS A
BIT STRONGER AS WELL. IF STORMS DO FORM, THEY WILL LEAN DRIER
GIVEN THE LARGE INVERTED V IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS UP TO 550 AND
600 MB. AGAIN, THE PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURING IS ABOUT 5-10%
FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A RATHER QUIET DAY AS TEMPERATURES TREND ABOUT
5 DEGREES WARMER AND HIT THE UPPER 90'S HERE IN MEDFORD. HEAT RISK
IS STILL LOW TO MODERATE LIKELY ON FRIDAY. THIS IS LIKELY BECAUSE
IT'S THE HOTTEST TIME OF YEAR AND THE BRIEF NATURE OF THE HEAT.
SATURDAY WILL BE A BIGGER CHANGE FOR OUR AREA AS THE UPPER WAVE
IN THE PACIFIC FINALLY SHOOTS EAST AND COLD FRONT FOLLOWS IN THE
LOWS' WAKE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE DRY AND LIKELY MOVE THROUGH
MID DAY SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A NOTABLE DIP INTO
THE 80'S IN OUR VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES. USUALLY THESE COLD
FRONTS BRING SOME BREEZY WINDS AS THEY PASS THROUGH. WIND GUSTS
WILL TREND HIGHER AND HIT 30 MPH OVER LARGER AREAS EAST OF THE
CASCADES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WE'LL SEE THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES STAY AROUND BY SUNDAY BEFORE A
THERMAL TROUGH AND SOME EASTERLY BREEZES SET UP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SHOOT UP AGAIN
INTO THE UPPER 90'S FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES. A STRONG
RIDGE WILL LIKELY BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS SHOULD STAY IN THE UPPER 90'S OR PERHAPS 100. IF THE RIDGE
ENDS UP FARTHER NORTH, WHICH IS A REALISTIC SOLUTION, THEN WE'LL
BE WELL INTO THE MID 100'S HERE IN MEDFORD.
-SMITH
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 230 PM PDT TUESDAY, JULY 28, 2026...
OVERALL, THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL SEE GENERALLY NORMAL SUMMER
WEATHER BUT WITH SOME CONDITIONS WORTH ADDRESSING. VERY SLIGHT
CHANCES (ABOUT 5%) REMAIN FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING DRY THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE COOLING
OVER THE WEEKEND.
A DRY COLD FRONT IS BRINGING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
SATURDAY, AS THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BRING ELEVATED NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ALONG COASTAL
HEADLANDS, BUT THE SHASTA AND EASTERN ROGUE (FROM SHADY COVE TO
GOLD HILL TO ASHLAND) MAY SEE GUSTY WINDS FUNNEL THROUGH.
ADDITIONALLY, GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST SIDE
AREAS. DETAILS ARE COARSE AT THIS POINT, BUT CURRENTLY WINDS STAY
SHORT OF CRITICAL SPEEDS AND RHS SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE. THIS
PERIOD WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS THE DETAILS RESOLVE. -TAD
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page