331
FXUS66 KMFR 290844
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
144 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SMOKE FROM THE CASTLE FIRE AND MULTIPLE COMPLEXES IN CENTRAL
OREGON WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT LAKE, KLAMATH, AND EASTERN
DOUGLAS COUNTIES.
* VERY LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH
COUNTIES TODAY AND THURSDAY.
* TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER FRIDAY.
* A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES
LOWER INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY. SMOKE AND LOWER AIR QUALITY WILL
BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BROADER WEST
TO NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP PUSHING SMOKE FROM THE CASTLE
FIRE IN EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY INTO LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES.
ALSO, THE SMOKE FROM THE COMPLEXES IN CENTRAL OREGON WILL CONTINUE
TO SETTLE EAST OF THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT AND THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.
A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN OREGON TODAY, AND AGAIN THURSDAY.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH THE
NBM 12 HOUR THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY HAS HINTS OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES AND POINTS NORTH
AND WEST. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALSO SHOWING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL OREGON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WITH
PWATS OF 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES, THE ATMOSPHERE IS LIKELY WAY TOO
DRY TO ALLOW FOR ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEYOND CUMULUS FIELDS.
SO WHILE THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE AROUND
5-10%, IT IS FAR MORE LIKELY THAT NOTHING WILL DEVELOP. HOWEVER,
WITH HOT, DRY, AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR MANY OF THE
AREA WILDFIRES, WE CAN'T RULE OUT SOME PYROCUMULUS OR EVEN
ISOLATED PYROCUMULONIMBUS DEVELOPMENT TO DEVELOP WITHIN ANY SMOKE
PLUMES. WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THESE FIRES ARE OUT OF OUR
FORECAST AREA, SHOULD THESE OCCUR, THE INCREASE IN SMOKE
PRODUCTION COULD RESULT IN MORE SMOKE SETTLING IN ACROSS THE EAST
SIDE TONIGHT.
FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A RATHER QUIET DAY AS TEMPERATURES TREND ABOUT
5 DEGREES WARMER AND HIT THE UPPER 90'S HERE IN MEDFORD. HEAT RISK
IS STILL LOW TO MODERATE, LIKELY BECAUSE IT'S THE HOTTEST TIME OF
YEAR AND THE BRIEF NATURE OF THE HEAT. THEREFORE, HEAT HEADLINES
ARE NOT EXPECTED.
SATURDAY WILL BE A BIGGER CHANGE FOR OUR AREA AS THE UPPER WAVE
IN THE PACIFIC FINALLY SHOOTS EAST AND A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS IN
THE LOWS' WAKE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE DRY AND LIKELY MOVE THROUGH
MID DAY SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A NOTABLE DIP INTO
THE 80'S IN OUR VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES. USUALLY THESE COLD
FRONTS BRING SOME BREEZY WINDS AS THEY PASS THROUGH. WIND GUSTS
WILL TREND HIGHER AND HIT 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND OVER LARGER
AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WE'LL SEE THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES STAY AROUND BY SUNDAY BEFORE A
THERMAL TROUGH AND SOME EASTERLY BREEZES SET UP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SHOOT UP AGAIN
INTO THE UPPER 90'S FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES. A STRONG
RIDGE WILL LIKELY BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS SHOULD STAY IN THE UPPER 90'S OR PERHAPS 100. IF THE RIDGE
ENDS UP FARTHER NORTH, WHICH IS A REALISTIC SOLUTION, THEN WE'LL
BE WELL INTO THE MID 100'S HERE IN MEDFORD.
AVIATION...29/12Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL AND WILL
DO SO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A MARINE PUSH THIS
MORNING HAS BROUGHT AREAS OF LIFR/IFR CEILINGS TO THE COAST AND MVFR
CEILINGS INLAND INTO THE COQUILLE AND UMPQUA BASINS. THE MARINE
LAYER DOESN'T QUITE LOOK DEEP ENOUGH TO SPILL OVER THE ROGUE-UMQPUA
DIVIDE, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF JACKSON/JOSEPHINE COUNTIES BY SUNRISE. THE LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING UNTIL THE MARINE LAYER PUSHES INLAND AGAIN
LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. -BPN/BR-Y
MARINE...UPDATED 130 AM PDT WEDNESDAY, JULY 29, 2026
NORTH WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY, REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA SOUTH OF
PORT ORFORD AND BEYOND 10 NM FROM SHORE. THIS WILL BRING BORDERLINE
STEEP SEAS WEDNESDAY, PRIMARILY FROM GOLD BEACH SOUTHWARD. WINDS
EASE ON THURSDAY WITH IMPROVED CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY.
ON SATURDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH MAY BRING
VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER AREA WATERS AS IT TIGHTENS THE
GRADIENT AND ENHANCES THE THERMAL TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THESE WINDS ARE UNCERTAIN, THE LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING
A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS, AND NEARLY A 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF STORM FORCE GUSTS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. -TAD/BPN
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 230 PM PDT TUESDAY, JULY 28, 2026
OVERALL, THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL SEE GENERALLY NORMAL SUMMER
WEATHER BUT WITH SOME CONDITIONS WORTH ADDRESSING. VERY SLIGHT
CHANCES (ABOUT 5%) REMAIN FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING DRY THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE
COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND.
A DRY COLD FRONT IS BRINGING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
SATURDAY, AS THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BRING STRENGTHENED NORTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ALONG COASTAL
HEADLANDS AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE, BUT THE SHASTA AND EASTERN ROGUE
(FROM SHADY COVE TO GOLD HILL TO ASHLAND) MAY SEE GUSTY WINDS FUNNEL
THROUGH. DETAILS ARE COARSE AT THIS POINT, BUT CURRENTLY WINDS STAY
SHORT OF CRITICAL SPEEDS AND RHS SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE. THIS PERIOD
WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS THE DETAILS RESOLVE. -TAD
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ376.
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