034
FXUS66 KMFR 060133
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
633 PM PDT WED AUG 5 2026
..UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION
AVIATION...06/00Z TAFS
ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE WILL EXPERIENCE IFR/LIFR IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THURSDAY, WITH
AREAS OF VFR IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT ALSO PATCHES OF IFR LINGERING
THROUGH THE DAY.
THE THICKNESS OF SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY UNDER CONTINUED BROAD EAST FLOW. SMOKE AND HAZE HAS BROUGHT
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS IN AREAS, INCLUDING THE UMPQUA
BASIN AND ROSEBURG, AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF THE KLAMATH BASIN. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL, ALTHOUGH SMOKE AND HAZE CONTINUES, AND MAY PRODUCE MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.
MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 5, 2026
BELOW
ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOWER WAVE
HEIGHTS DUE TO NORTH WIND WAVES AND FRESH SWELL. NORTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH STEEP SEAS
LIKELY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. A NEW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR FRIDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS, AND THIS WILL LIKELY EXPAND IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 208 PM PDT WED AUG 5 2026/
KEY MESSAGES...
* HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS ARE THE OVERALL THEME GOING
FORWARD
- HEAT ADVISORIES AND RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT
* TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS ARE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY FOR
MANY WESTSIDE VALLEYS
* COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES START SUNDAY BUT AREAS OF
TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS REMAIN OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY
* AREAS OF SMOKE REMAIN DUE TO NEARBY WILDFIRES
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE NOTED BY HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT AND A GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 500MB. BY THIS
WEEKEND, THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT
ALOFT, BUT THE OVERALL TREND OF HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NOT SEEING ANY
NOTEWORTHY PIECES OF ENERGY ALOFT THAT WOULD LEAD TO ANY
PRECIPITATION AS GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO STICK AROUND. THE
VERY SUBTLE PIECES OF ENERGY ALOFT WOULD ONLY LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN
WIND SPEEDS IF ANYTHING UNDER THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY/MIDDLE NEXT WEEK.
TODAY THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MEDFORD WILL BE WITHIN REACH
AS WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING A HIGH OF 106 WITH A RECORD OF 106
(1972). NEXT TWO DAYS IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE RECORDS WILL BE REACHED
GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR RECORDS BEING RELATIVELY HIGH. THAT SAID, WE
ARE GENERALLY LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL WITH THESE MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES GOING THROUGH EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT
WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE PARTS OF WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WHERE
TRIPLE DIGITS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON IN THE VALLEYS
THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
LASTLY, SMOKE WILL BE THE OTHER FACTOR AS THE DIURNAL WIND PATTERN
CONTINUES TO SPREAD AREAS OF SMOKE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SMOKE
IS VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST WITH UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVED IN FIRE
ACTIVITY/SUPPRESSION AND EXACTLY HOW MUCH SMOKE WILL BE INTRODUCED
INTO THE ATMOSPHERE. THAT SAID, EXPECT AREAS OF SMOKE UNTIL AN
AIRMASS CHANGE OCCURS.
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 100 PM PDT WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 5, 2026...
RIDGING ALOFT AND A THERMAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE WILL PRODUCE
PERSISTENT HEAT AND NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND THURSDAY, BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY TO MORE
NORMAL OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
POOR RH RECOVERIES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, BUT SHOULD SEE SOME VERY
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, DAYTIME
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY, DROPPING INTO THE
LOW TEENS OR SINGLE DIGIT PERCENTAGES IN MANY LOCATIONS, BUT THESE
TOO SHOULD SEE SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT. WINDS ALSO REMAIN BREEZY
EACH DAY, WITH THE USUAL DIURNAL PATTERN OF BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
IN THE AFTERNOONS, AND BROAD EAST FLOW OVERNIGHT. WITH THESE HOT,
DRY, UNSTABLE, AND WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS DURING THE DAY
TODAY, WE ARE EXPECTING TO REACH CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA WEST OF THE CASCADES. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE ILLINOIS AND ROGUE VALLEYS, THE UMPQUA BASIN, AND WESTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WILL HELP REDUCE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS A BIT, BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
STILL EXPECTED IN THE ROGUE, ILLINOIS, AND APPLEGATE VALLEYS YET
AGAIN. A NEW RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AS HUMIDITIES IMPROVE, AND TEMPERATURES START TO COOL FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, FURTHER RED FLAGS MAY NOT BE NECESSARY, BUT SOME LOCATIONS
MAY STILL GET VERY CLOSE TO CRITICAL CRITERIA. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO
WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL PASSAGE OF A DRY FRONT SATURDAY, AND ANOTHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THAT COULD PRODUCE ENHANCED WINDS AND ADDITIONAL
CONCERNS.
OUTSIDE OF THE RED FLAG WARNING AREAS, FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK
CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE HOT, DRY, WINDY, AND UNSTABLE, WITH POOR
RIDGETOP AND EAST SIDE RECOVERIES, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ023-024-026-
028>031.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ616-617-
620>623.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ620-622.
CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ080-081-083>085.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ280-282.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ280.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM PDT
FRIDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
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