833
FXUS66 KMFR 061144
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
444 AM PDT THU AUG 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DAYTIME HIGHS 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL CONTINUE TODAY AND
FRIDAY, SUPPORTING AN EXTENSION OF A HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING.
* WILDFIRE SMOKE ACCUMULATION CONTINUES THIS MORNING, WITH
IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
* A SLIGHT PATTERN CHANGE TO ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS BY NEXT WEEK, WITH LITTLE
INDICATION OF IMPACTFUL CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE OREGON COAST WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THE UMPQUA VALLEY WILL BE IN THE HIGH 90S TO LOW
100S WHILE MOST OTHER WEST SIDE VALLEYS LINGER NEAR 105. THE KLAMATH
RIVER VALLEY WILL HAVE THE HOTTEST SPOTS IN THE CWA. WITH HIGHS
REACHING OR EXCEEDING 110. TO THE EAST OF THE CASCADES, DAYTIME
HIGHS IN VALLEYS AND BASINS WILL BE IN THE MID TO HIGH 90S. WITH
CONSTANT HIGH TEMPERATURES COMES WARMER NIGHTS AND LESS CHANCE FOR
RELIEF. FOR THIS REASON, A HEAT ADVISORY FOR MOST INLAND AREAS HAS
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING TO HIGHLIGHT THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS. INDIVIDUALS WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO THE HEAT OR LACK
ADEQUATE COOLING AND HYDRATION MAY EXPERIENCE HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES
WITH THESE ONGOING TEMPERATURES.
WITH GENTLE OVERNIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR SMOKE ACCUMULATION, AIR
QUALITY LOOKS TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL. MOST
AREAS WILL SEE SOME AMOUNT OF SMOKE TO START THE DAY, BUT WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO CHANGE THE PATTERN GOING FORWARD. WEST SIDE
AREAS SHOULD SEE DECREASED ACCUMULATION ON FRIDAY MORNING, WITH EAST
SIDE AREAS STILL SEEING SOME LINGERING SMOKE. IMPROVING MORNING
AIR QUALITY MAY CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND.
THAT CHANGE TO A WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL ALSO HELP TO SLOWLY AND
STEADILY DECREASE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. BUT EVEN WITH THE CHANGE IN DIRECTION, THE FLOW
ALOFT STAYS RELATIVELY DRY AND FREE OF SUBSTANTIAL ENERGY. A FEW
WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING ENHANCED AFTERNOON BREEZES AT SOME POINT
NEXT WEEK, BUT THERE'S NOTHING TO INDICATE WORRISOME CONDITIONS AT
THIS POINT. LONG-TERM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST, WITH
BOTH ECMWF AND GFS MODELING SHOWING A SEASONABLE PERIOD THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK AHEAD. -TAD
AVIATION...06/12Z TAFS
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS UNDER A SOLID LAYER
OF MARINE STRATUS PERSISTING ALONG THE OREGON COAST. THIS LAYER
LOOKS TO CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ONSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO BRING
IFR/LIFR LEVELS BACK THIS EVENING AND INTO THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
INLAND AREAS LOOKS TO GENERALLY REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS UNDER CLEAR
SKIES, ALTHOUGH WILDFIRE SMOKE MAY BRING PERIODS OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES TO AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 5, 2026
BELOW
ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS DUE TO
NORTH WIND WAVES AND FRESH SWELL. NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH STEEP SEAS LIKELY SOUTH
OF CAPE BLANCO. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS, AND THIS WILL LIKELY EXPAND IN COVERAGE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 100 PM PDT WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 5, 2026
RIDGING ALOFT AND A THERMAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE WILL PRODUCE
PERSISTENT HEAT AND NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND FRIDAY, BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY TO MORE
NORMAL OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
POOR RH RECOVERIES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, BUT SHOULD SEE SOME VERY
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, DAYTIME
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY, DROPPING INTO THE
LOW TEENS OR SINGLE DIGIT PERCENTAGES IN MANY LOCATIONS, BUT THESE
TOO SHOULD SEE SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT. WINDS ALSO REMAIN BREEZY
EACH DAY, WITH THE USUAL DIURNAL PATTERN OF BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
IN THE AFTERNOONS, AND BROAD EAST FLOW OVERNIGHT. WITH THESE HOT,
DRY, UNSTABLE, AND WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS DURING THE DAY
TODAY, WE ARE EXPECTING TO REACH CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA WEST OF THE CASCADES. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE ILLINOIS AND ROGUE VALLEYS, THE UMPQUA BASIN, AND WESTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WILL HELP REDUCE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS A BIT, BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
STILL EXPECTED IN THE ROGUE, ILLINOIS, AND APPLEGATE VALLEYS YET
AGAIN. A NEW RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AS HUMIDITIES IMPROVE, AND TEMPERATURES START TO COOL FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, FURTHER RED FLAGS MAY NOT BE NECESSARY, BUT SOME LOCATIONS
MAY STILL GET VERY CLOSE TO CRITICAL CRITERIA. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO
WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL PASSAGE OF A DRY FRONT SATURDAY, AND ANOTHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THAT COULD PRODUCE ENHANCED WINDS AND ADDITIONAL
CONCERNS.
OUTSIDE OF THE RED FLAG WARNING AREAS, FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK
CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE HOT, DRY, WINDY, AND UNSTABLE, WITH POOR
RIDGETOP AND EAST SIDE RECOVERIES, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ023-024-026-028>031.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR ORZ620-622.
CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR CAZ080-081-083>085.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR CAZ280.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM PDT
FRIDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
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