718
FXUS66 KMFR 062028
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
128 PM PDT THU AUG 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* HOT, DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
* TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER BY SATURDAY WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW.
* SMOKE FROM FIRES AROUND THE REGION WILL PRODUCE UNHEALTHY AIR
QUALITY OVER SOME AREAS.
* NO CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.
DISCUSSION
SMOKE AND HEAT ARE THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL PUSH INTO THE 100'S IN OUR WESTSIDE VALLEYS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, YET SHORT OF ANY RECORDS. IN ADDITION, MODELS ARE
ANTICIPATING A GRADUAL COOL OFF AS THE THERMAL TROUGH HAS MOVED
EASTWARD AND THE 500 MB RIDGE SLIGHTLY WEAKENS THIS WEEKEND. WE'LL
ALSO SEE SOME STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WHICH WILL PUSH SMOKE
HIGHER IN THE ATMOSPHERE EASTWARDS.
DURING THE MORNING HOURS, WE'LL GET OUR USUAL SOUTH WEST WINDS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND SETS
UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SMOKE FROM THE WRIGHT SPRINGS FIRE HOVERING AROUND KLAMATH FALLS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WINDS FROM THE WOOD RAT FIRE POPPING
UP NEAR RUCH WILL PUSH SMOKE INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY AND AIR QUALITY
WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
500 MB HEIGHTS BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AROUND THE SATURDAY
TIMEFRAME. WE LOOKED THROUGH THE ENSEMBLES AND WE DON'T SEE ANY
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA AS THIS
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER WAVE ALSO APPEARS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST DURING THE TUESDAY TIMEFRAME WITH NO ANTICIPATED
IMPACTS AROUND OUR REGION.
THE ONLY OTHER WEATHER FEATURE TO MENTION IS AROUND NEXT WEEK WHEN
THE MODELS ARE ANTICIPATING ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE TO MOVE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AROUND THURSDAY. ONE WOULD EXPECT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE IN THE FORECAST, ALTHOUGH IT IS LOOKING FAIRLY
DRY AROUND OREGON, PERHAPS BECAUSE THE TROUGH TRAJECTORY IS
DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH WEST OFF THE GULF OF ALASKA. IN ANY
CASE, IT'S STILL LOOKING FAIRLY DRY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS SOME HOPE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AROUND DAY
10. ABOUT 30% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE PREDICTING SPOTTY
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AROUND
AUGUST 15TH. SOME OF THIS COULD ALSO COME IN THE FORM OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOMETHING TO MONITOR DURING FUTURE MODEL RUNS.
-SMITH
AVIATION...06/18Z TAFS
A MIX OF IFR/LIFR OVER THE COASTAL WATERS,
COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO PATCHY LINGERING
IFR THIS AFTERNOON. IFR/LIFR IS EXPECTED TO FORM AND THICKEN ALONG
THE COAST AGAIN AFTER 02Z EARLY THIS EVENING, AND PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INLAND, BUT WITH AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITY
REDUCTION DUE TO SMOKE. SMOKE CONCENTRATION WILL REMAIN HIGHEST IN
SOUTHERN OREGON, ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON (INCLUDING KLAMATH
FALLS AND LAKEVIEW). SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED WITH
BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS. BUT, SMOKE WILL SETTLE INTO VALLEYS AGAIN
AND LOCALLY INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT THURSDAY, AUGUST 6, 2026
BELOW
ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOWER WAVE
HEIGHTS DUE TO NORTH WIND WAVES AND FRESH SWELL. NORTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH STEEP SEAS
LIKELY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
FRIDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS, AND THIS WILL LIKELY EXPAND IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 300 PM PDT THURSDAY, AUGUST 6, 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEST OF THE CASCADES
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARDS. RHS WILL
STILL DROP DOWN INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS LOWER TEENS WITH THE
TYPICAL NW GUSTY VALLEY WINDS WEST OF THE CASCADES.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES SHOULD IMPROVE WITH LIGHTER WESTERLY FLOW
ALONG THE COAST WITH MODERATE RECOVERIES MORE LIKELY IN THE
COASTAL RANGE. POOR RECOVERIES SEEM MORE LIKELY IN WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY AS VERY DRY AIR LINGERS THERE.
OTHERWISE, THE MORE NOTABLE IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING OVER THE REGION AND DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL PUSH HUMIDITIES NOTABLY
HIGHER BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID
AUGUST.
-SMITH
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ023-024-026-028>031.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ620-622.
CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR CAZ080-081-083>085.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ280.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM PDT
FRIDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
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