085
FXUS66 KMFR 072132
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
232 PM PDT FRI AUG 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES BECOMING MORE SEASONABLE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD, BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
* SMOKE FROM NEARBY WILDFIRES WILL PRODUCE UNHEALTHY AIR QUALITY
AT TIMES FOR SOME AREAS.
* DRY PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK, BUT SIGNS
ARE POINTING TOWARD POTENTIAL LIGHTNING FOR LATE NEXT WEEK OR
NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE THAT'S BEEN OVER THE AREA THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL MIGRATE TO A POSITION NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS THIS WEEKEND WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK DISTURBANCES TO PASS
MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH INTO NEXT WEEK. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE STILL IN
EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MOST INLAND AREAS, BUT WE'VE
EXTENDED THEM TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS NORCAL.
WITH SUBTLY LOWER HEIGHTS, TEMPERATURES WON'T BE QUITE AS HOT AS
THEY HAVE BEEN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT, FOR THE MOST PART,
WILL BE NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL. OVERALL, NOT MUCH CHANGE IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS, OTHER THAN KNOCKING OFF A FEW
DEGREES FROM HIGH TEMPS, AND A VERY SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY.
WE CAN EXPECT MODEST DIURNALLY DRIVEN BREEZES EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WHICH WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ELEVATED. SMOKE
WILL BE THICKEST OVER KLAMATH/LAKE COUNTIES FROM THE WRIGHTS
SPRING FIRE (BURNING BETWEEN CHILOQUIN AND SPRAGUE RIVER) WHERE
AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND W-NW WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE ENHANCED
BURNING PERIODS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL ALSO MAKE NIGHTLY APPEARANCES ALONG THE
COAST, BUT MOSTLY NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THIS IS BECAUSE ANOTHER
THERMAL TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN IN NW CALIFORNIA AND EXTEND
NORTHWARD INTO SW OREGON. THIS WILL LEAD TO STRONGER N WINDS
(GALES) OVER THE MARINE WATERS AND NIGHTLY E-NE FLOW OVER THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS. WITH THE DRIER WINDS MOVING MOSTLY OFFSHORE, WE
EXPECT SUNNIER CONDITIONS FROM PORT ORFORD SOUTH. WINDS FUNNELING
DOWN THE CHETCO VALLEY COULD RESULT IN SOME WARM AFTERNOONS IN
BROOKINGS (HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S) SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY.
LATE NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A POTENTIAL SURGE OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY, BUT MORE
LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND. AFTER A LONG LAY OFF, THIS WILL RE-INTRODUCE
THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHTNING/THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST.
-SPILDE
AVIATION...07/18Z TAFS
MARINE STRATUS IS PEELING BACK TO
THE BEACHES LATE THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CLEAR TO VFR AT LEAST
BRIEFLY AT NORTH BEND BEFORE RETURNING BY THIS EVENING. VFR
WILL PREVAIL INLAND ACROSS THE REMAINDER, EXCEPT AREAS OF WILDFIRE
SMOKE AND HAZE WILL CAUSE SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS, ESPECIALLY
IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY AND JUST DOWNWIND OF THE FIRES. IFR/LIFR
MARINE STRATUS WILL IMPACT THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. -SPILDE
MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT FRIDAY, AUGUST 7, 2026
NORTH WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THEN, GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY STEEP SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH SOUTH OF PORT ORFORD SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS EXPAND NORTH
OF CAPE BLANCO. WE UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING AND
EXTENDED IT OUT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LITTLE VARIATION IN STRENGTH
OF THE THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED EVEN BEYOND THAT, SO THESE
CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
-SPILDE
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT FRIDAY, AUGUST 7, 2026
WE
ARE STILL NEAR TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS OF HOT, DRY, AND WINDY
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INLAND GENERALLY
ONLY A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES AWAY FROM RECORD VALUES. A TREND OF
GRADUAL, VERY SLIGHT COOLING AND SIMILARLY SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN
HUMIDITY VALUES IS EXPECTED EACH DAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. WHILE A HELPFUL TREND, HIGHS TEMPERATURES AT THEIR
LOWEST NEXT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY WILL STILL BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
MEANTIME, AFTERNOON AND EVENING BREEZES WILL BE NEAR TYPICAL
STRENGTH EACH DAY, WITH NO SIGNIFICANTLY STRONG WINDS. THE TREND TO
CLOSER TO NORMAL CONDITIONS INVOLVES THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTING FARTHER INLAND. THIS PATTERN DOES
INCLUDE OVERNIGHT BREEZY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT RIDGE TOPS
(INCLUDING THE COAST RANGE AND KALMIOPSIS WILDERNESS), WHERE POOR TO
MODERATE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE POOREST TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS FRIDAY, WITH A HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR DAY 8/9 (NEXT WEEKEND). IT IS TOO EARLY FOR ANY
LEVEL OF PRECISION WITH THE DETAILS OF THE LOCATION AND EXTENT OF
STORM COVERAGE. BUT, MORE THAN 30% OF THE COMBINED GFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE SUITES OF DATA INDICATE A WAVE DEVELOPING INTO A TROUGH
OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA TO ALLOW A SOUTHERLY INFLUX OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ023-024-026-
028>031.
CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080>085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM PDT
MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
PZZ350-370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
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