766
FXUS66 KMFR 081114
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
414 AM PDT SAT AUG 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS ARE THE OVERALL THEME GOING
FORWARD RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND
* COOLER AND MORE WIDEPSREAD SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES START MONDAY
BUT AREAS OF TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS REMAIN OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* AREAS OF SMOKE REMAIN POSSIBLE DUE TO NEARBY WILDFIRES WHICH
COULD BRING UNHEALTHY AIR QUALITY
* EARLY SIGNS POINTING AT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING AS EARLY
AS FRIDAY BUT MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE NOTED BY HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, RESULTING IN A GENERAL
SOUTHWEST TO ZONAL FLOW AT 500MB OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY FOR
MOST AREAS. THERE ARE VERY SUBTLE PIECES OF ENERGY ALOFT EMBEDDED IN
THIS FLOW THAT MAY LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS UNDER THE VERY
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY/MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. ISOLATED AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE, BUT MAY LACK THE REQUIRED LENGTH IN TIME EACH DAY.
NEVERTHELESS, INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
BY NEXT WEEK (THURS/FRI), WE MAY SEE A PATTERN CHANGE, AND THERE IS
SOME EVIDENCE OF A CUTOFF LOW FORMING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THAT
COULD SLIDE NORTH THROUGH THE PACNW. THIS COULD BRING INCREASED
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS EARLY AS FRIDAY BUT MORE LIKELY
ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME DETAILS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR, BUT CHANCES
WILL EXIST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COULD LEAD TO
INCREASE FIRE DANGER FROM LIGHTNING STARTS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION GOING FORWARD.
LASTLY, SMOKE WILL BE THE OTHER FACTOR AS THE DIURNAL WIND PATTERN
CONTINUES TO SPREAD AREAS OF SMOKE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SMOKE
IS VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST WITH UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVED IN FIRE
ACTIVITY/SUPPRESSION AND EXACTLY HOW MUCH SMOKE WILL BE INTRODUCED
INTO THE ATMOSPHERE. THAT SAID, EXPECT AREAS OF SMOKE UNTIL AN
AIRMASS CHANGE OCCURS.
-GUERRERO
AVIATION (12Z TAFS)
THE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A MARINE LAYER PRODUCING IFR
CONDITIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST IMPACTING KOTH. WILL LIKELY
SEE RELIEF THIS AFTERNOON SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH BRIEF VFR
PERIODS BEFORE THE MARINE LAYER REDEVELOPS. INLAND, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH
TYPICAL DIURNAL WINDS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
-GUERRERO
MARINE...UPDATED 330 AM PDT SATURDAY, AUGUST 8, 2026
NORTH WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STEEP
SEAS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH THIS MORNING. THEN,
GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH
OF PORT ORFORD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WHILE GUSTY NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP SEAS EXPAND NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THESE CONDITIONS COULD
PERSIST THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ080>085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8
PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT MONDAY
FOR PZZ350-370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
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