580
FXUS66 KMFR 090439
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
939 PM PDT SAT AUG 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BRING A STEADY DECREASE IN
DAYTIME HIGHS BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS BY MIDWEEK, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
* MINOR DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS IN THE
FORECAST, BRINGING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
* SIGNALS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPEARING ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN ANY SPECIFIC
OUTCOME.
DISCUSSION
WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE AS AN UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENS, WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK AHEAD. THE MOST IMMEDIATE IMPACT WILL BE DECREASED DAYTIME
HIGHS AS WELL AS DECREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS, WHICH WILL MAKE CONTINUED
HEAT ADVISORIES UNNECESSARY. BY MIDWEEK, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA LOOK TO BE AT SEASONAL NORMS. SLIGHT WARMING IS POSSIBLE NEAR
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT SPLITS, WITH A FAIRLY FLAT
RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTH. THIS WESTERLY FLOW
WILL STAY DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
MODEL IMAGERY DOES NOT INCLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES IN THE
UPPER FLOW, BUT WEAK PASSING DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TO KEEP
AFTERNOON BREEZES SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. WHILE THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON DAY-TO-DAY CONDITIONS, THESE BREEZES WHEN COMBINED WITH
ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS DO REPRESENT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
DEPENDING ON THE POSITION AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE CUTOFF LOW,
MONSOONAL MOISTURE COULD REACH THE AREA LATE INTO THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, BUT IF AND
WHERE THOSE THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAPPEN IS UNCLEAR. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
DIVIDED, WITH DETERMINISTIC IMAGERY SHOWING PRECIPITATION OVER MOST
COUNTIES (EXCEPTING DOUGLAS, COOS, AND CURRY) AT SOME POINT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. METEOGRAMS
GENERALLY HAVE A 20-40% CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR SITES
EAST OF THE CASCADES (KLAMATH FALLS, LAKEVIEW, ALTURAS). OVERALL,
DATA REMAINS COARSE AND CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE OUTCOME IS SLIGHT
AT THIS POINT. -TAD
AVIATION...09/06Z TAFS
MARINE STRATUS WITH IFR/LIFR WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST, NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO, OVERNIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH 17Z SUNDAY. VFR WILL PREVAIL INLAND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA, EXCEPT AREAS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE AND HAZE WILL
CAUSE LOCAL VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE IMMEDIATE
VICINITY AND JUST DOWNWIND OF THE FIRES. KLAMATH FALLS IS EXPECTED
TO EXPERIENCE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS (DOWN TO 2-4 MI) IN SMOKE
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, WE EXPECT BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AT MOST TAF SITES ON
SUNDAY, GENERALLY 20-25 KT, EXCEPT UP TO AROUND 30 KT AT NORTH
BEND.
MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT SATURDAY, AUGUST 8, 2026
GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER AREA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO, THESE WINDS HAVE BUILT STEEP SEAS. TO THE SOUTH, GALE
GUSTS AND VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF PORT
ORFORD AND WITHIN 50 NM OF SHORE, WITH STEEP SEAS IN THE OUTERMOST
WATERS. HAZARDS FOR THIS FORECAST ARE IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING, BUT GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS GENERAL PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS START TO EASE ON THURSDAY MORNING, BUT
UNSETTLED SEAS COULD PERSIST FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. -TAD
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT SATURDAY, AUGUST 8, 2026
WE'LL
STAY IN A PATTERN OF VERY WARM TO HOT, DRY, AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND INTO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
DOES INCLUDE OVERNIGHT BREEZY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT RIDGE TOPS
OF SW OREGON AND NW CALIFORNIA (MOST NOTABLY THE COAST RANGE AND
KALMIOPSIS WILDERNESS) ALONG WITH POOR TO MODERATE RH RECOVERY. A
CHANNELING OF WINDS DOWN THE CHETCO SHOULD RESULT IN DRIER/WARMER
CONDITIONS ALONG THE SW OREGON COAST AS WELL.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTING BACK TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS WILL ALLOW
WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO BRING LOWER HEIGHTS AND MODEST COOLING
TO INLAND AREAS INTO NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY, THE TREND WILL BE TO
LOWER DAYTIME MAXTS DOWN BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY, AND THIS
SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY ALLOW DAYTIME MINRHS TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. EVEN
SO, IT'LL BE DRY AND UNSTABLE, SO ANY FIRES ON THE LANDSCAPE WILL
STILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO GROW SIGNIFICANTLY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
PEAK BURNING PERIODS DURING THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES HAVEN'T BEEN GOOD THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS, GENERALLY
ONLY IN THE 20-35% RANGE FOR SOME OF THE UPPER SLOPES AND RIDGES.
THERE SHOULD BE SLIGHT NIGHTLY IMPROVEMENT IN RECOVERIES FROM NW TO
SE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THINGS TREND TOWARD NORMAL FOR MID NEXT WEEK,
BUT TEMPERATURES STILL PROBABLY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW A WEAKNESS OR UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WED/THU NEXT WEEK
AND ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AROUND FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT THERE WILL BE A MORE ORGANIZED RISK OF
LIGHTNING/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT THERE IS
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFICS. FOR NOW, WE ARE
CARRYING A BROAD AREA OF 20-30% CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS NORCAL UP
ACROSS THE SISKIYOUS TO THE CASCADES AND EASTWARD. GIVEN THE VERY
DRY FUELS, THIS COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN LIGHTNING IGNITIONS.
WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR, SO KEEP CHECKING FOR UPDATES. -SPILDE
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ080>085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-
376.
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