795
FXUS66 KMFR 091052
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
352 AM PDT SUN AUG 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS ARE THE OVERALL THEME GOING
FORWARD RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
* COOLER AND MORE WIDEPSREAD SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES START MONDAY
BUT AREAS OF TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS REMAIN OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* AREAS OF SMOKE REMAIN POSSIBLE DUE TO NEARBY WILDFIRES WHICH
COULD BRING UNHEALTHY AIR QUALITY
* UNCERTAINTY EXISTS BUT EARLY SIGNS POINTING AT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASING THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE NOTED BY HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, RESULTING IN A GENERAL
SOUTHWEST TO ZONAL FLOW AT 500MB OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HOT, DRY, AND
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY FOR MOST AREAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW. BY TUESDAY
NIGHT, WE START TO SEE THE HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SLIDE
EAST/SOUTHEAST. AT THIS TIME, A TROUGH DOES DEVELOP OVER THE WEST
COAST, AND THIS PATTERN DOES LOOK TO REMAIN OVER THE WEST COAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. NOT SEEING ANY NOTABLE IMPACTS AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BETTER OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES BY MID WEEK
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN HAS CHANGED AND WE ARE NOT SEEING THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE
CALIFORNIA COAST NOW. INSTEAD, AROUND FRIDAY/SATURDAY, A CLOSED LOW
NOW LOOKS TO FORM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND MOVE INTO THE PACNW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND/MONDAY. WE WILL SEE INCREASED CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS STRETCH, BUT AT THIS TIME ITS TOUGH TO
SAY WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE WHEN THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. ENSEMBLES ARE
MIXED AND HAVE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY,
BUT MANY MEMBERS ARE ALSO DRY. AT THIS TIME, SATURDAY IS LOOKING
LIKE THE BEST DAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN POTENTIAL MUCAPE. HOWEVER,
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DOESN'T MOVE OUT OF THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THINGS SHOULD BECOME MORE CLEAR OVER THE
COMING DAYS, BUT THE MAIN TAKEAWAY IS WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND/MONDAY.
LASTLY, SMOKE WILL BE THE OTHER FACTOR AS THE DIURNAL WIND PATTERN
CONTINUES TO SPREAD AREAS OF SMOKE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SMOKE
IS VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST WITH UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVED IN FIRE
ACTIVITY/SUPPRESSION AND EXACTLY HOW MUCH SMOKE WILL BE INTRODUCED
INTO THE ATMOSPHERE. THAT SAID, EXPECT AREAS OF SMOKE UNTIL AN
AIRMASS CHANGE OCCURS.
-GUERRERO
AVIATION (12Z TAFS)
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR THIS CYCLE. THIS MEANS
ANOTHER MARINE LAYER IMPACTING KOTH WITH IFR CEILINGS, BUT WE WILL
SEE RELIEF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MARINE LAYER DISSIPATES.
INLAND TAF SITES WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT FOR KLMT. THE WILDFIRE NEAR KLMT WILL BRING SMOKE INTO THE
AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN MVFR CEILING AND HAZE WHICH WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITIES. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO DUE TO
SMOKE BEING SO HARD TO PREDICT, BUT WITHOUT AN AIRMASS CHANGE
EXPECTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO YESTERDAY.
-GUERRERO
MARINE...UPDATED 330 AM PDT SUNDAY, AUGUST 9, 2026
GUSTY NORTH
WINDS ARE PRESENT OVER AREA WATERS, WITH AREAS OF GALE FORCE GUSTS
AND VERY STEEP SEAS SOUTH OF PORT ORFORD. ELSEWHERE, GUSTY WINDS AND
STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO AT
LEAST MONDAY EVENING BUT COULD PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS LOOK
TO EASE ON THURSDAY BUT UNSETTLED SEAS COULD CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-
376.
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