616
FXUS66 KMFR 112142
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
242 PM PDT TUE AUG 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SEASONABLE WARMTH CONTINUES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
SOME MINOR VARIATIONS.
* EARLY MORNING SMOKE ACCUMULATION AROUND KLAMATH FALLS CONTINUES,
WITH AFTERNOON WINDS BLOWING SMOKE TO THE EAST.
* DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GUIDE WEATHER
CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN OREGON. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS AND NO EXPECTATION OF ACTIVE WEATHER. WITH
ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BRINGING
PERIODS OF ELEVATED BREEZES, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN A
CONCERN BUT WITH STEADILY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
SMOKE ACCUMULATION IN KLAMATH, LAKE, AND MODOC COUNTIES LOOKS TO
CONTINUE, GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE WRIGHTS SPRING FIRE. LIGHTER
OVERNIGHT WINDS ALLOW FOR SMOKE TO ACCUMULATE AROUND THE FIRE, WHICH
HAS INCLUDED PARTS OF KLAMATH FALLS DOWN HIGHWAY 139/39 TO TULELAKE.
AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL HELP TO BRING CLEARING IN THOSE AREAS LATER
IN THE DAY, BUT WILL DECREASE AIR QUALITY DOWNWIND INTO LAKE AND
MODOC COUNTIES.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES NUDGING
TOWARDS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN
OVERALL SEASONAL. MODELS HAVE SHOWN THIS FLOW PATTERN MOSTLY CUTTING
MONSOONAL MOISTURE OFF FROM THE AREA. HOWEVER, A SMALL UPPER
DISTURBANCE MAY DRAW JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WESTWARD TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY HAS
REMAINS OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, ALONG THE CASCADES, AND ACROSS
NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THESE CHANCES REMAIN SLIGHT (10-
15%) AT MOST AND CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD, AS PREVIOUS DAYS SHOWED
CHANCES OF ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY.
GLANCING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, LONG-TERM IMAGERY IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT BUT QUESTIONS REMAIN. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND, A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVELS SOUTH OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN (BETWEEN
130W AND 140W), BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THAT LOW TRAVELS
TO THE NORTHEAST AND OVER THE AREA. THERE'S SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN
TIMING BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC IMAGERY, AND ENSEMBLE METEOGRAMS
HOVER AT 20-40% CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AT DIFFERENT LOCATIONS
INTO NEXT WEEK. AS ALWAYS, STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. -TAD
AVIATION (00Z TAFS)
WE CONTINUE TO SEE VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS CYCLE. THIS
INCLUDES A MARINE LAYER THAT WILL REESTABLISH TONIGHT BRINGING
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO KOTH OVERNIGHT WITH RELIEF EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON (SIMILAR TO TODAY). WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE SMOKE
FROM THE WRIGHTS SPRING FIRE IMPACT KLMT BRINGING CEILINGS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH SMOKE FORECASTING DUE TO FIRE ACTIVITY/SUPPRESSION EFFORTS.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR OTHER INLAND AREAS AND TYPICAL
DIURNAL BREEZES.
MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT TUESDAY, AUGUST 11, 2026
GUSTY NORTH
WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH AREAS OF GALES AND
VERY STEEP SEAS SOUTH OF PORT ORFORD AND STEEP SEAS TO THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE THURSDAY, WITH NORTH WINDS AT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY STRENGTH SOUTH OF PORT ORFORD. BUT, WITH THE COMBINATION OF
WIND WAVE AND FRESH SWELL, STEEP SEAS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE AREA INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND, AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-370-376.
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