007
FXUS66 KMFR 282230
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
330 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BAND OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL JUST CLIP
FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF MODOC AND LAKE COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
* TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER INTO SATURDAY, THEN ARE GENERALLY
SEASONABLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH ENHANCED BREEZES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, WEAKER ON SUNDAY THEN SEASONABLY BREEZY ON MONDAY.
* A TROUGH DOMINATED PATTERN WILL FOLLOW WITH AT LEAST CLOUDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. RAINFALL CHANCES ARE INCREASING TUESDAY
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY
FOR COASTAL AND WESTSIDE AREAS.
DISCUSSION
WITH PRECEDING CLOUD COVER, AND THE MAIN BAND OF
MOISTURE EXITING THE AREA, THE PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF LAKE AND
MODOC COUNTIES WAS REDUCED TO 5%. OTHERWISE, IT IS BREEZY THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOSTLY SUNNY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS INTO WASHINGTON. HIGH TEMPERATURES OF A FEW TO AROUND
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S) WILL BE
COMMON. NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL BE AT A SIMILAR
STRENGTH TO THOSE OF TODAY, SLIGHTLY ENHANCED BY A FEW TO 5 MPH
ABOVE TYPICAL AFTERNOON STRENGTH, AND STRONGEST EAST OF THE
CASCADES.
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH DURING
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE AT A MINIMUM, UNDER THE RIDGE
AXIS, ON SUNDAY, THEN BREEZY AGAIN ON MONDAY.
THE PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASING FOR OUR AREA TO GET A FIRST
TASTE OF FALL FROM TUESDAY TO FRIDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE A TROUGH
DOMINATED PATTERN WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES, HIGHER HUMIDITY, AND
OCCASIONAL RAIN CHANCES. THE FIRST OF A FEW STRONGER LOWS IS
FORECAST TO MOVE DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
ENSEMBLES WITH THE TIMING, ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF THESE
SYSTEMS. OVERALL, THE PATTERN FAVORS INCREASED RAINFALL CHANCES,
AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY ESPECIALLY FROM
THE CASCADES WEST. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT VARIABILITY IN ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. SO, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN. FOR NOW,
THE OFFICAL FORECAST IS FOR 48 HOUR TOTALS OF AROUND AN INCH AT
THE COAST, A TENTH OF AN INCH TO A HALF INCH FOR THE WEST SIDE AND
NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY, AND A TRACE TO A LIGHT ACCUMULATION FOR
THE SHASTA VALLEY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST SIDE.
INSTABILITY IS WEAK SO THERE ARE ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
BUT GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN THE FORECAST, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
THIS TO CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST
CHANGES.
AVIATION...28/18Z TAFS
IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND FOG AT THE COAST AND
COQUILLE VALLEY IS LIFTING AND ERODING THIS MORNING. THE CONDITION
WILL IMPROVE TO MERELY LINGERING PATCHES OF IFR/LIFR, MAINLY NEAR
BROOKINGS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO, COASTAL AREAS WILL HAVE GUSTY
NORTH BREEZES (~20-25 KT) THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
COASTAL IFR/LIFR WILL RETURN THIS EVENING NEAR BROOKINGS, AND FROM
CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD, AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
MEANTIME, THE PROGRESSION OF STRATUS INTO THE UMPQUA VALLEY TONIGHT
WILL BE MORE TYPICAL, SLOWER AND LESS EXTENSIVE THAN IT WAS LAST
NIGHT. THIS INCLUDES PATCHY MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR ROSEBURG EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, AFTER 12Z.
OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AFTERNOON WINDS (20-30 KT) THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND IN NE CALIFORNIA. ALSO, ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
COULD GRAZE FAR SE SECTIONS OF MODOC AND LAKE COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT FRIDAY, AUGUST 28, 2026
NORTH WINDS
ARE INCREASING, WITH STEEP SEAS SOUTH OF PORT ORFORD. THESE STEEP
SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH STEEP
SEAS EXTENDING INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO FROM LATE SUNDAY
MORNING INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST EACH AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO IMPROVE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY
FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
PZZ350-370.
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