315
FXUS66 KMFR 291353
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
653 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER TODAY, THEN ARE GENERALLY SEASONABLE
SUNDAY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY. ENHANCED BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, WEAKER ON SUNDAY THEN BREEZY TO GUSTY
ON MONDAY.
* A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
ELEVATED RAINFALL CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH BEST
CHANCES FROM THE CASCADES WEST. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER WASHINGTON WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TODAY. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION WILL
STAY GENERALLY NORTH OF THE AREA, EXCEPT FOR A LOW CHANCE (5-10%) FOR
LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. GUSTY WINDS AND
DRY HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
CASCADES.
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AND AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
THE COAST LATE MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH EXPECT GUSTY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS EAST OF THE CASCADES. THESE WINDS COMBINED
WITH DRY HUMIDITIES MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EAST OF THE CASCADES.
THEN, ENSEMBLES SHOW A PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED BEGINNING TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, AS A STRONGER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA
AND TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES (8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) AND CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL. AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST ON
TUESDAY, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
INLAND AREAS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS (25-40%) FROM THE COAST
INLAND TO THE CASCADES AS WELL AS INTO PORTIONS OF KLAMATH COUNTY
AND NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY. THEN, A FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED
CHANCES FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
(50-75%) FROM THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES WEST AS WELL AS CHANCES
(25-60%) ACROSS SISKIYOU, KLAMATH AND PORTIONS OF LAKE COUNTIES.
RAINFALL MAY BE MODERATE ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA.
GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY EAST OF THE CASCADES IN
THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BRINGING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG WITH CONTINUED COOL
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, MODELS AND ENSEMBLES VARY ON THE POSITION
AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW WHICH WILL FACTOR INTO HOW MUCH SHOWERS
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.
AVIATION...29/12Z TAFS
ALONG THE COAST, AREAS OF LIFR IN FOG ARE
PRESENT NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND FROM BROOKINGS SOUTH. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BURN OFF IN THE LATE MORNING WITH VFR RETURNING. INLAND,
A STRATUS LATER IS PRESENT IN THE UMPQUA BASIN AND BANKED UP AGAINST
THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. STRATUS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT AND CLEAR TO VFR IN THE LATE MORNING.
ELSEWHERE, VFR WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL, WITH GUSTY WINDS AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT SATURDAY, AUGUST 29, 2026
GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS ARE PRESENT SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
GUSTY WINDS SPREAD NORTHWARD LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH STEEP
SEAS EXTENDING INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO FROM LATE
SUNDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THROUGH SUNDAY. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
IMPROVE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY
FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
PZZ350-370.
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