383
FXUS66 KMFR 172151
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
251 PM PDT THU SEP 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY. MAIN RISK IS LIGHTNING,
BUT ALSO GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS (40-45 MPH), ESPECIALLY
CASCADES EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.
* TEMPERATURES WARM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND GETTING BACK ABOVE
NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
* SIGNAL FOR DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUES
FOR NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SHOWERS
SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION LOWERS OVERNIGHT. WE'LL SEE THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVE EASTWARDS INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING
TO BUILD DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO THE NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THIS 500 MB RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE WEEKEND AND SEEMS TO
PEAK AROUND SUNDAY AS HIGHS WEST OF THE CASCADES PEAK HERE IN
MEDFORD. WE'RE FORECASTING A HIGH OF 93 HERE IN MEDFORD WITH
UPPER 70'S EAST OF THE CASCADES AND LOWER 80'S IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. OVERALL, THIS WEEKEND WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER
WISE WITH SOME TEMPERATURES LINGERING ABOVE NORMAL.
IT'S LOOKING LIKE ZONAL FLOW FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW
FLATTENING 500 MB HEIGHTS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE NBM HAS 1-5% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE
CASCADES FROM AROUND TUESDAY TO THURSDAY. A FEW ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS APPEAR TO BE PULLING IN A COLD FRONT WITH SOME MOISTURE IN
AROUND THAT TIME MID WEEK.
NOTHING STANDS OUT WEATHER WISE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE'LL SEE
PRETTY TYPICAL LATE SUMMER AND EARLY FALL CONDITIONS. THE EXTREME
FORECAST INDEX ISN'T SHOWING ANYTHING THAT IS EXTREME FOR EARLY
FALL AS WELL. THE ONLY THINGS WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS POINT IS
THE FORECAST IS LOOKING WETTER TOWARDS THE END OF SEPTEMBER
AROUND NEXT FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MORE ENSEMBLE FORECAST
MEMBERS ARE STARTING TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. STILL DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING AND LOCATION, ALTHOUGH THE
GENERAL THEME IS MORE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE WAY.
-SMITH
AVIATION...17/18Z TAFS
CONDITIONS ARE VFR INLAND, BUT SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT LATE THIS MORNING IN SISKIYOU,
EASTERN DOUGLAS, NORTHERN KLAMATH, AND NORTHERN LAKE COUNTIES.
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO
COVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM
THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS EASTWARD IN SOUTHERN OREGON. STRONGER CELLS
COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE CONDITIONS TO MVFR, BUT VFR SHOULD PREVAIL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER LONGEST, AFTER 03Z, THROUGH
AROUND 06Z FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE, THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO VFR INLAND ON FRIDAY IS THAT AREAS
OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY, INCLUDING
ROSEBURG, DURING FRIDAY MORNING FROM AROUND 12Z THROUGH 17Z.
FOR THE COAST, CONDITIONS ARE IFR WITH PATCHY LIFR. THIS STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 16, 2026
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE INTO FRIDAY. NORTH WINDS INCREASE
AGAIN SATURDAY WITH STEEP SEAS LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. NORTH WINDS AND WIND
DRIVEN SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO A PEAK MONDAY, AND REMAIN NEAR
THAT LEVEL ON TUESDAY, WITH GALES POSSIBLE SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
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