285
FXUS66 KMFR 182344
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
444 PM PDT FRI SEP 18 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS
KEY MESSAGES
* LOW IMPACT WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
* COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY, RETURNING TO
SEASONABLE VALUES THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES PEAK AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
* DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NEXT WEEK.
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND (9/25-9/27).
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS SITUATED OVER SOUTH EASTERN OREGON NEAR
THE IDAHO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME CUMULUS BUILD UPS OVER
LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTY. EVENTUALLY, WE SHOULD SEE THAT LOW
SHIFTING TOWARDS THE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THE COAST WILL
REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG, ALTHOUGH AREAS TO
THE EAST WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD TONIGHT, WE'LL BEGIN A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE LOWER
90'S HERE IN MEDFORD ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE MIDDLE OF
SEPTEMBER.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN APPEARS PROGRESSIVE WITH A CLOSED LOW
MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEST TO EAST 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND ZONAL FLOW IN OREGON. QUIET WEATHER WILL LIKELY
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER THIS PATTERN BEFORE WE SEE
TROUGHING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AROUND THE THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE STARTING TO SHOW A COLD FRONT AND
NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION OFF OUR COAST AROUND THURSDAY BEFORE
THIS FRONT COULD MOVE INLAND. THE NBM HAS A 10% CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH IN THE GULF MOVES INLAND. THIS
WON'T BE A VERY WET EVENT EVEN IF IT DOES RAIN AS MEMBERS ARE ONLY
BRINGING ABOUT 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN INTO AREAS OF WESTERN OREGON.
OVERALL, PRETTY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS
AS THE EXTREME FORECAST INDEX(EFI) DOESN'T SHOW ANYTHING
NOTEWORTHY OVER SOUTHERN OREGON OR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
-SMITH
AVIATION...19/00Z TAFS
MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST LOOKED TO
BE CLEARING BRIEFLY BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LAYER STARTING
TO REBUILD OVER NORTH BEND WHICH IS KEEPING MVFR LEVELS IN PLACE.
OTHER PARTS OF THE COAST WILL SEE MARINE STRATUS RETURN THROUGH THE
EVENING. EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, FLIGHT LEVELS ALONG THE COAST ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR OR LIFR THEN RETURN TO MVFR NEAR THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL KEEP INLAND AREAS AT VFR LEVELS
WITH NORMAL DIURNAL BREEZES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES ARE
ONLY BEING INTERRUPTED BY POPCORN CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER TERRAIN,
BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT IN THE FORECAST. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 100 PM PDT FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 18, 2026
LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH STEEP SEAS LIKELY
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING, POSSIBLY
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS COOS BAY OR REEDSPORT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTH WINDS AND WIND DRIVEN SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO A PEAK
MONDAY, AND REMAIN NEAR THAT LEVEL ON TUESDAY, WITH ISOLATED GALES
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE ON
THURSDAY.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
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