746
FXUS66 KMFR 192128
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
228 PM PDT SAT SEP 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* TRENDING WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
* DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
* VERY LOW CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. COASTAL STRATUS HASN'T
BURNED OFF AS OF 2PM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST. MODELS AREN'T
HANDLING THE BURNING OFF OF THESE CLOUDS VERY WELL, ALTHOUGH WE
SHOULD SEE THE COASTAL STRATUS BUILD RIGHT BACK IN LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA VALLEY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOVING
JUST A BIT HIGHER WITH 91 CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FOR MEDFORD.
TEMPERATURES TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON SUNDAY AND END UP 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS MID/LATE SEPTEMBER PERIOD.
WE'LL SEE A CLOSED LOW MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A ZONAL 500 MB HEIGHT PATTERN FARTHER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WON'T CHANGE MUCH AND END UP SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE AND NO STRONG LIFTING MECHANISMS
IN OUR REGION.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS A COLD FRONT STALLS
OUT ALONG THE OREGON COAST WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN OREGON. AGAIN, NOT MUCH MOISTURE HERE, ALTHOUGH WE'RE
EXPECTING SOME RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA.
WITH TROUGHING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA, A DEEPER WAVE WILL APPROACH
THE OREGON COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF APPEAR ON THE WETTER SIDE COMPARED TO A LOT OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. THERE ARE A FEW ECWMF ENSEMBLES THAT BRING WETTING RAIN
TO OUR AREA FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH THE VAST MAJORITY ARE KEEPING THINGS
DRY WITH PRECIPITATION OVER OTHER LOCATIONS. THE NBM CURRENTLY
HAS A 15-20% CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST WITH THOSE
PROBABILITIES FALLING TO ABOUT 5% FARTHER INLAND ON FRIDAY.
OVERALL, WE'RE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR OR MODERATE IMPACTS
FROM THIS POTENTIAL RAIN. WITH NO IMPACTS FROM THE BURNSCARS
DURING THE LAST EVENT, ANY RAIN ON FRIDAY SHOULD FOLLOW THE SAME
PATH WITH LIMITED IMPACTS.
LASTLY, OUR GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS PICKING UP ON
SOME FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY
FRIDAY NIGHT ONCE THIS COOLER AIR MOVES IN. OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND
CRESCENT AND CHEMULT WILL BE AROUND 29 WITH SOME MID 20'S JUST
EAST OF CRATER LAKE.
OVERALL, MINIMAL WEATHER IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT
7 DAYS WITH NORMAL SEPTEMBER WEATHER.
-SMITH
AVIATION...19/18Z TAFS
THE SHORTER DAYS AND LONGER NIGHTS
ARE HAVING AN IMPACT ON THE STAYING POWER OF THE MARINE LAYER (IT'S
LASTING LONGER). WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALREADY CLEARING THINGS OUT
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN, SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
SHOWING IFR/MVFR CLOUDS HOLDING STRONG OVER ROSEBURG AND NORTH BEND.
EVEN SO, CLOUDS ARE ERODING SLOWLY AND WE SHOULD SEE THESE CLEAR TO
VFR AT ROSEBURG BY ~19Z. IT'LL PROBABLY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER THAN
THAT AT THE COAST (NORTH BEND), WHICH IS INDICATED TO BREAK TO VFR
~22Z. FOR THOSE AREAS THAT DO BREAK OUT, IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. WE
EXPECT A SIMILAR RETURN OF MARINE LAYER INDUCED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
AT THE COAST AND THE UMPQUA BASIN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS VFR AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING WITH WEAK DIURNAL BREEZES. -SPILDE
MARINE...UPDATED 100 PM PDT SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 19, 2026
INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL ALLOW STEEP SEAS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO LATE THIS EVENING, THEN LIKELY EXTEND TO CAPE ARAGO
DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTH WINDS AND WIND DRIVEN
SEAS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE BUILDING TO A PEAK MONDAY EVENING, WITH
VERY STEEP SEAS AND GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH.
CONDITIONS REMAIN NEAR THAT LEVEL ON TUESDAY WITH AT LEAST BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
PZZ350-370.
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