778
FXUS66 KMFR 200541
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1041 PM PDT SAT SEP 19 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS
AVIATION...20/06Z TAFS
MARINE STRATUS IS KEEPING IFR LEVELS IN
PLACE ALONG THE OREGON COAST. OCCASIONAL LIFR COULD ALSO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME CLEARING TO THE COAST, OR EVEN
OFFSHORE, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, IS EXPECTED SUNDAY.
STRONGER NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT NORTH BEND
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT. BRIEF CLEARING TO VFR IS POSSIBLE THERE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS LIKELY RETURN SUNDAY
NIGHT. IN THE UMPQUA BASIN, EXPECT MVFR/IFR STRATUS TO REDEVELOP
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IT PROBABLY FOLLOWS A SIMILAR TIMING TO
TODAY, FORMING IN THE 09-11Z TIME FRAME AND BREAKING OUT TO VFR
SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY MORNING OR EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS VFR AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH WEAK DIURNAL BREEZES AND JUST SOME
HIGH CIRRUS AT TIMES. -SPILDE/TAD
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 228 PM PDT SAT SEP 19 2026/
KEY MESSAGES...
* TRENDING WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
* DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
* VERY LOW CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. COASTAL STRATUS HASN'T
BURNED OFF AS OF 2PM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST. MODELS AREN'T
HANDLING THE BURNING OFF OF THESE CLOUDS VERY WELL, ALTHOUGH WE
SHOULD SEE THE COASTAL STRATUS BUILD RIGHT BACK IN LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA VALLEY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOVING
JUST A BIT HIGHER WITH 91 CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FOR MEDFORD.
TEMPERATURES TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON SUNDAY AND END UP 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS MID/LATE SEPTEMBER PERIOD.
WE'LL SEE A CLOSED LOW MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A ZONAL 500 MB HEIGHT PATTERN FARTHER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WON'T CHANGE MUCH AND END UP SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE AND NO STRONG LIFTING MECHANISMS
IN OUR REGION.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS A COLD FRONT STALLS
OUT ALONG THE OREGON COAST WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN OREGON. AGAIN, NOT MUCH MOISTURE HERE, ALTHOUGH WE'RE
EXPECTING SOME RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA.
WITH TROUGHING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA, A DEEPER WAVE WILL APPROACH
THE OREGON COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF APPEAR ON THE WETTER SIDE COMPARED TO A LOT OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. THERE ARE A FEW ECWMF ENSEMBLES THAT BRING WETTING RAIN
TO OUR AREA FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH THE VAST MAJORITY ARE KEEPING THINGS
DRY WITH PRECIPITATION OVER OTHER LOCATIONS. THE NBM CURRENTLY
HAS A 15-20% CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST WITH THOSE
PROBABILITIES FALLING TO ABOUT 5% FARTHER INLAND ON FRIDAY.
OVERALL, WE'RE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR OR MODERATE IMPACTS
FROM THIS POTENTIAL RAIN. WITH NO IMPACTS FROM THE BURN SCARS
DURING THE LAST EVENT, ANY RAIN ON FRIDAY SHOULD FOLLOW THE SAME
PATH WITH LIMITED IMPACTS.
LASTLY, OUR GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS PICKING UP ON
SOME FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY
FRIDAY NIGHT ONCE THIS COOLER AIR MOVES IN. OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND
CRESCENT AND CHEMULT WILL BE AROUND 29 WITH SOME MID 20'S JUST
EAST OF CRATER LAKE.
OVERALL, MINIMAL WEATHER IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT
7 DAYS WITH NORMAL SEPTEMBER WEATHER.
-SMITH
MARINE...UPDATED 100 PM PDT SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 19, 2026...
INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL ALLOW STEEP SEAS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO LATE THIS EVENING, THEN LIKELY EXTEND TO CAPE ARAGO
DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTH WINDS AND WIND DRIVEN
SEAS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE BUILDING TO A PEAK MONDAY EVENING, WITH
VERY STEEP SEAS AND GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH.
CONDITIONS REMAIN NEAR THAT LEVEL ON TUESDAY WITH AT LEAST BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
PZZ350-370.
MAS
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