072
FXUS66 KMFR 202143
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
243 PM PDT SUN SEP 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES.
* THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
* TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
COASTAL STRATUS AND SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ARE THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURES THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
TEMPERATURES ARE JUST A TAD WARMER THAN NORMAL AS WE'RE
FORECASTING A HIGH OF 91 HERE IN MEDFORD AND 85 IS THE NORMAL HIGH
AT MFR AROUND MID TO LATE SEPTEMBER.
OTHERWISE, MORE COASTAL CLOUDS AND FOG WILL COVER THE COAST
TONIGHT WITH A STRONG MARINE PUSH. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
SLIGHTLY LOWER ON MONDAY AS THE 500 MB RIDGE WEAKENS A BIT. A
CLOSED LOW WILL ALSO MOVE INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL ROTATE INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA FROM THE EAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE'LL PROBABLY SEE
SOME CUMULUS BUILD UPS AND THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OR TWO.
HEADING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WE'LL BE UNDER ZONAL FLOW
WITH A DEEP TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TREND SLIGHTLY LOWER INTO THE UPPER 70'S WITHIN VALLEYS WEST AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES. BY THURSDAY, THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN.
ABOUT 30 TO 40% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE A WEAKER SURFACE LOW
SPINNING UP ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE PACIFIC. THAT LOW AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROBABLY MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AROUND THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER, ANOTHER 30 TO
40% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THINGS QUITE DRY FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. IT SEEMS LIKE THERE IS LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THIS
SET OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THERE ARE ALSO QUESTIONS WHERE THE BULK
OF THE RAIN COULD FALL. SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TARGET WASHINGTON
AND AREAS WELL TO OUR NORTH VERSUS SOUTHERN OREGON. IN ANY CASE,
STILL A LOT TO SORT OUT AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
AFTER FRIDAY, CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT WITH TEMPERATURES MOVING
NOTABLY COOLER WITH FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES.
-SMITH
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE
TAF PERIOD ALONG THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
PERIODS OF LIFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE
COAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COAST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
-SMITH
MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 20, 2026
GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL MAINTAIN STEEP SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE FURTHER INTO MONDAY EVENING.
MODELS ARE AMBITIOUS WITH SOME HIGH AND VERY STEEP WIND WAVES
AROUND 8 TO 9 FEET, WHICH SHOULD PUSH US INTO HAZARDOUS SEAS
CRITERIA. WINDS EASE SOME ON TUESDAY AND CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AS SEAS BECOME LESS STEEP AND TRANSITION TO
SWELL DOMINATED. STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS PERSIST SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY IMPROVING FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
-SMITH
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
FOR PZZ356-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
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