214
FXUS66 KMFR 210533
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1033 PM PDT SUN SEP 20 2026
..UPDATED THE AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS
AVIATION...21/06Z TAFS
A MIX OF IFR/LIFR IS AT THE COAST NORTH OF
PORT ORFORD, AND FROM GOLD BEACH TO BROOKINGS THIS EVENING. THIS
STRATUS ALSO HAS EXPANDED INTO THE COQUILLE AND LOWER UMPQUA
VALLEYS. OVERNIGHT, IT WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND INTO THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE UMPQUA VALLEY (INCLUDING ROSEBURG). CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 15Z, MAINLY INLAND. VFR IS EXPECTED AT
ROSEBURG BY 18Z. BREAKS IN THE STRATUS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST IN
THE AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH LIFTING TO MVFR AS A PREDOMINANT
CONDITION. HOWEVER, CEILINGS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE COAST.
COASTAL CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AGAIN MONDAY EVENING, WITH
EXPANDING CLOUD COVERAGE AND CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR.
VFR WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW CUMULUS
BUILDUPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES, WITH A SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY IN SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU COUNTY.
MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 20, 2026
GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL MAINTAIN STEEP SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE ARAGO THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. EXCEPT, VERY STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE OUTER
WATERS SOUTH OF BROOKINGS. WINDS EASE SOME ON TUESDAY AND CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AS SEAS BECOME LESS STEEP AND
TRANSITION TO SWELL DOMINATED. BUT, STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS LIKELY
PERSIST SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, BEFORE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 609 PM PDT SUN SEP 20 2026/
KEY MESSAGES...
* WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES.
* THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
* TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION...
COASTAL STRATUS AND SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ARE THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURES THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
TEMPERATURES ARE JUST A TAD WARMER THAN NORMAL AS WE'RE
FORECASTING A HIGH OF 91 HERE IN MEDFORD AND 85 IS THE NORMAL HIGH
AT MFR AROUND MID TO LATE SEPTEMBER.
OTHERWISE, MORE COASTAL CLOUDS AND FOG WILL COVER THE COAST
TONIGHT WITH A STRONG MARINE PUSH. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
SLIGHTLY LOWER ON MONDAY AS THE 500 MB RIDGE WEAKENS A BIT. A
CLOSED LOW WILL ALSO MOVE INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL ROTATE INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA FROM THE EAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE'LL PROBABLY SEE
SOME CUMULUS BUILD UPS AND THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OR TWO.
HEADING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WE'LL BE UNDER ZONAL FLOW
WITH A DEEP TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TREND SLIGHTLY LOWER INTO THE UPPER 70'S WITHIN VALLEYS WEST AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES. BY THURSDAY, THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN.
ABOUT 30 TO 40% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE A WEAKER SURFACE LOW
SPINNING UP ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE PACIFIC. THAT LOW AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROBABLY MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AROUND THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER, ANOTHER 30 TO
40% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THINGS QUITE DRY FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. IT SEEMS LIKE THERE IS LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THIS
SET OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THERE ARE ALSO QUESTIONS WHERE THE BULK
OF THE RAIN COULD FALL. SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TARGET WASHINGTON
AND AREAS WELL TO OUR NORTH VERSUS SOUTHERN OREGON. IN ANY CASE,
STILL A LOT TO SORT OUT AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
AFTER FRIDAY, CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT WITH TEMPERATURES MOVING
NOTABLY COOLER WITH FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES.
-SMITH
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-
376.
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