346
FXUS66 KMFR 221137
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
437 AM PDT TUE SEP 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF
THIS WEEK
* RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THURS/FRI (20%-60%) WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE (10%-20%) ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES
* THE FRONT THURS/FRI WILL BE MOSTLY DRY EAST OF THE CASCADES,
BUT WILL PRODUCE BREEZY WINDS
* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
A CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO PASS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. AS THE LOW EXITS TO THE EAST, WE WILL EXPERIENCE
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL LEAD TO
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH VERY LITTLE IMPACTS/HAZARDS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. BY THURSDAY, THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT NOW WITH GOOD CONSENSUS
THROUGH LATER PARTS OF THIS WEEK. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY STAY OVER WESTSIDE AREAS, BUT
LIGHT RAINFALL COULD OCCUR FOR SOME EASTSIDE AREAS. CURRENTLY,
INSTABILITY IS VERY MEAGER, SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE REALM OF
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, BUT WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH FRIDAY HAVING THE RELATIVELY BETTER CHANCES
ALBEIT STILL VERY LOW BASED ON MUCAPE VALUES. PROBABILITIES FOR
RAINFALL ARE MUCH BETTER FOR WESTSIDE AREAS. THE PROBABILITY FOR
0.25" OF RAINFALL OVER 48 HOURS RANGES FROM 25% TO 75% FOR
WESTSIDE AREAS, WITH THE CHANCES HIGHEST ALONG/NEAR THE COAST AND
GRADUALLY DECREASING AS YOU GO EAST/INLAND. OFFICIAL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY RANGE FROM ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH TO AROUND 0.75" OVER
ROUGHLY 36-48 HOURS. HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG/NEAR THE COAST AND
NORTHERN PARTS OF DOUGLAS COUNTY. EASTSIDE AREAS COULD SEE AROUND
A TRACE TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. IT WILL ALSO BE
BREEZY FOR EASTSIDE AREAS AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
WITH FRIDAY HAVING SLIGHTLY MORE ENHANCED BREEZES AS THE TROUGH
AXIS PASSES OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THEREAFTER, TEMPERATURES DROP FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD. FOR EXAMPLE, MEDFORD MAY ONLY REACH
THE UPPER 60S FOR A HIGH ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE 70S THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS/WARMER
LOCATIONS. IN OTHER WORDS, EXPECTING A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN (BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES) THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION (12Z TAFS)
LOW CLOUDS ALONG/NEAR THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KOTH THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SOME RELIEF IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOR LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT FOR NORTH BEND, AND AT THIS
TIME HINTED AT THE POSSIBILITY WITH A SCATTERED DECK, BUT GUIDANCE
IS SPLIT ON WHETHER THESE LOWS CLOUDS WILL WARRANT ANY CATEGORICAL
CHANCES. AT THIS TIME, WILL GO WITH THE VFR SOLUTION FOR TONIGHT
AT KOTH BUT THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE, AND WE MAY NEED TO
REEVALUATE THIS IN SUBSEQUENT TAFS. OTHERWISE, KRBG COULD
EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO FILL IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. KMFR AND KLMT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN VFR THROUGH THIS CYCLE WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
MARINE...UPDATED 400 AM PDT TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 22, 2026
GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL MAINTAIN STEEP SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH
THIS EVENING, EXCEPT FOR VERY STEEP SEAS SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH AND
WITHIN 30 NM OF SHORE. THIS INCLUDES NEAR SHORE WINDS SOUTH OF
BROOKINGS BECOMING STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AND MORE NOTICEABLY ON THURSDAY, BEFORE
A THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-
376.
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