434
FXUS66 KMFR 222032
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
132 PM PDT TUE SEP 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
* A FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CENTER ARRIVE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH RAIN AND BREEZY/GUSTY WINDS.
* THE SURFACE LOW MAY PASS ONSHORE ALONG THE COOS/DOUGLAS COUNTY
COASTLINE, PRODUCING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.
* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS PASSED TO OUR SOUTH.,
AND IS NOW EXITING OFF TO THE EAST, LEAVING SOUTHERN OREGON AND
FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS KEEPING
THE AREA UNDER SEASONABLE BUT DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY FAIR-
WEATHER CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS OUR SKIES. SIMILAR, ALTHOUGH
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW.
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY, ALONG WITH A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. BOTH FEATURES WILL STRENGTHEN AS THEY
APPROACH THE SOUTHERN OREGON COASTLINE, BEFORE PASSING ONSHORE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS A RELATIVELY NEW
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE MODEL SUITES, AND RESULTS IN A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER EVENT THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. NOW, GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL RANGES, ALONG WITH 0.50
TO 1.0 INCH OF RAIN AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD. A TENTH TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE WEST
SIDE, ALTHOUGH MORE IS POSSIBLE IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. UP TO A TENTH
OF AN INCH IS NOW FORECAST FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES,
ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS, SUCH AS MODOC COUNTY, MAY NOT SEE MUCH RAIN
AT ALL. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO SPREAD ACROSS THE EAST SIDE,
ALTHOUGH SPEEDS ARE STILL TOO LOW ACROSS THE MODEL SUITES FOR
ADVISORY CONCERNS. THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS,
GENERALLY AROUND 15%, AGAIN MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE
UMPQUA VALLEY.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES, CONDITIONS DRY OUT AND TEMPERATURES COOL
TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ANOTHER TROUGH MAY ARRIVE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND ALTHOUGH RAIN
CHANCES ARE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN, CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...22/18Z TAFS
MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS
ALONG THE COAST, OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, AND ACROSS THE UMPQUA AND
COQUILLE VALLEYS HAS BEEN SLOW TO BURN OFF TODAY, AND WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING TO VFR, ALTHOUGH SOME AREA MAY
NOT FULLY CLEAR AT ALL. MVFR/IFR WILL RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR
ALL OTHER AREAS.
MARINE...UPDATED 1200 PM PDT TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 22, 2026
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH REMAINING ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO. A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND COMPACT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ARRIVE ALONG THE OREGON COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY,
WITH POTENTIALLY STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND STEEP CHOPPY SEAS, DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW. NORTH WINDS RETURN WITH
A REDEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PZZ356-376.
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