593
FXUS66 KMFR 230306
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
806 PM PDT TUE SEP 22 2026
..UPDATED THE AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS
AVIATION...23/00Z TAFS
CONDITIONS ARE VFR EARLY THIS EVENING.
IFR WILL RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS AFTER 06Z, LATER THIS EVENING, AND
PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING, AROUND 17-18Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR ALL OTHER AREAS.
MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM PDT TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 22, 2026
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. CONDITIONS BRIEFLY IMPROVE THURSDAY.
THEN, A FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY, WITH
POTENTIALLY STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP CHOPPY SEAS,
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW. NORTH WINDS
RETURN WITH A THERMAL TROUGH LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 132 PM PDT TUE SEP 22 2026/
KEY MESSAGES...
* SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
* A FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CENTER ARRIVE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH RAIN AND BREEZY/GUSTY WINDS.
* THE SURFACE LOW MAY PASS ONSHORE ALONG THE COOS/DOUGLAS COUNTY
COASTLINE, PRODUCING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.
* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION...A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS PASSED TO OUR SOUTH.,
AND IS NOW EXITING OFF TO THE EAST, LEAVING SOUTHERN OREGON AND
FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS KEEPING
THE AREA UNDER SEASONABLE BUT DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY FAIR-
WEATHER CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS OUR SKIES. SIMILAR, ALTHOUGH
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW.
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY, ALONG WITH A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. BOTH FEATURES WILL STRENGTHEN AS THEY
APPROACH THE SOUTHERN OREGON COASTLINE, BEFORE PASSING ONSHORE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS A RELATIVELY NEW
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE MODEL SUITES, AND RESULTS IN A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER EVENT THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. NOW, GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL RANGES, ALONG WITH 0.50
TO 1.0 INCH OF RAIN AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD. A TENTH TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE WEST
SIDE, ALTHOUGH MORE IS POSSIBLE IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. UP TO A TENTH
OF AN INCH IS NOW FORECAST FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES,
ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS, SUCH AS MODOC COUNTY, MAY NOT SEE MUCH RAIN
AT ALL. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO SPREAD ACROSS THE EAST SIDE,
ALTHOUGH SPEEDS ARE STILL TOO LOW ACROSS THE MODEL SUITES FOR
ADVISORY CONCERNS. THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS,
GENERALLY AROUND 15%, AGAIN MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE
UMPQUA VALLEY.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES, CONDITIONS DRY OUT AND TEMPERATURES COOL
TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ANOTHER TROUGH MAY ARRIVE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND ALTHOUGH RAIN
CHANCES ARE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN, CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PZZ356-376.
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