567
FXUS66 KMFR 050551
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1051 PM PDT SUN OCT 4 2026
DISCUSSION
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.
AVIATION...05/06Z TAFS
WIDESPREAD LIFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD AND LOCALLY
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THESE MAY LIFT/BREAK BRIEFLY TO VFR
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING MONDAY EVENING. GUSTY NORTH
BREEZES (~25 KT) DEVELOP AT NORTH BEND IN THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE PATCHY LIFR COULD DEVELOP IN PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA BASIN AND
AROUND ROSEBURG EARLY MONDAY MORNING, IT COULD ALSO EASILY REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE VFR. MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING, THOUGH THESE WILL TEND TO THIN OUT BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN SE
SECTIONS (DOWN AROUND ALTURAS) THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. -SPILDE
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 437 PM PDT SUN OCT 4 2026/
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...05/00Z TAFS...WIDESPREAD LIFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
PERSISTS ALONG THE COAST FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD AND LOCALLY FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD FOR INLAND LOCATIONS WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO STREAM OVERHEAD FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THE MARINE LAYER TO RETURN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALONG THE
COAST, BRINGING THE RETURN OF LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AFTER
03Z. SOME PATCHY LIFR COULD DEVELOP IN PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA BASIN
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE LOW IN THE
EXTENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM PDT SUN OCT 4 2026/
KEY MESSAGES...
* WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY.
* WHILE ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR HEAT AND FIRE WEATHER ARE NOT
EXPECTED, TAKING ADDITIONAL CARE ON EITHER SUBJECT GIVEN THE
ONGOING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS IS ENCOURAGED.
* A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BRING A QUICK COOLDOWN TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION IS
NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...AN UPPER RIDGE AROUND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. COASTAL CITIES LOOK TO STAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
EAST SIDE AREAS AND THE UMPQUA VALLEY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID
TO HIGH 80S. MOST OTHER WEST SIDE VALLEYS WILL STAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S, WITH PARTS OF THE KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY REACHING 100
DEGREES. THESE TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WHILE THESE TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNING IN THEIR MAGNITUDE, ADVISORY
PRODUCTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE NECESSARY. OF COURSE, INDIVIDUALS SHOULD
BE AWARE OF HOW THEY TOLERATE WARM WEATHER AND STAKE STEPS TO STAY
SAFE DURING PEAK HEATING. BUT WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES LASTING
A FEW HOURS AT MOST AND AMPLE TIME FOR OVERNIGHT COOLING, SUSTAINED
HEAT STRESS IS NOT EXPECTED. BUT TO REPEAT, INDIVIDUALS WHO ARE VERY
SENSITIVE TO THESE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE AFFECTED EVEN IF
THOSE TEMPERATURES DO NOT LAST LONG.
FIRE WEATHER IS ALSO WORTH MENTIONING. FORTUNATELY, THERE'S LITTLE
THREAT OF ELEVATED WINDS NECESSARY FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS. WITH
THAT SAID, DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT ARE DOING LITTLE
TO EASE THE AMOUNT OF DRY GRASSES AND OTHER FUELS. EXTRA CARE WHILE
PERFORMING ACTIVITIES THAT CAN LEAD TO FIRE STARTS (CAMPFIRES,
CHAINS DRAGGING ALONG THE ROAD, YARD WORK TO NAME A FEW) IS
ENCOURAGED.
A PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS TO DROP TEMPERATURES QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS
ARE FORECAST TO DROP BY 5-10 DEGREES ON FRIDAY, THEN ANOTHER 10-20
DEGREES ON SATURDAY. BROADLY SPEAKING, THIS PUTS EAST SIDE AREAS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH WEST SIDE AREAS IN THE HIGH 60S TO LOW 70S.
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BUT CHANCES ARE TRENDING DOWN. WHILE GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE EAST SIDE, CURRENT
GUSTS LOOK SHORT OF ANY HAZARDOUS LEVELS AND INCREASING HUMIDITIES
WILL LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY, WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY BEYOND. LOOKING
AT ENSEMBLES, THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE RACHEL
REACHING THE AREA NO LONGER APPEARS IN ANY MEMBER PANELS. CURRENT
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MOISTURE REACHING THE COLD FRONT ONCE ITS EAST OF
THE AREA. THAT DOES NOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE, BUT OVERALL THAT
OUTCOME IS LOOKING EVEN LESS LIKELY THAN IT DID PREVIOUSLY. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT SUNDAY, OCTOBER 4, 2026...A
PERSISTING THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND STEEP
SEAS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD. WINDS HAVE COME DOWN SLIGHTLY,
LIMITING STEEP SEAS TO OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF REEDSPORT FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY. WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING, BRINGING STEEP SEAS TO ALL AREA WATERS.
FLUCTUATIONS IN THE THERMAL TROUGH'S STRENGTH AND POSITION MAY BRING
CHANGES TO WHERE STEEP SEAS ARE THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT THERE IS AN
AGREEMENT IN GUIDANCE THAT SOME AMOUNT OF STEEP SEAS WILL BE PRESENT
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. A PATTERN CHANGE MAY BRING ACTIVE WEATHER
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH SOME GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWING
INCOMING LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL ARRIVING AT SOME POINT OVER THE
WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN THESES OUTCOMES TO PREDICT
THE SEA STATE, BUT AS THIS IS THE FIRST SIGNS OF POSSIBLY MEANINGFUL
LONG-PERIOD SWELL FOR THE SEASON, ACKNOWLEDGING IT IS WORTHWHILE.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
FOR PZZ350-356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
MAS
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