090
FXUS66 KMFR 052328
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
428 PM PDT MON OCT 5 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
AVIATION...05/12Z TAFS
LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE MARINE
WATERS AND JUST INLAND NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. ANY ADDITIONAL CLEARING
IS UNLIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING, SO EXPECT LIFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER SUNSET,
INCLUDING SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS AND WILL DO SO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 258 PM PDT MON OCT 5 2026/
KEY MESSAGES...
* HOT AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
* THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE WE SET NEW HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
* A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT
PUSHING TEMPERATURES TOWARDS NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION...
A SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH
SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS SOUTH OF MODOC AND
SISKIYOU COUNTY. A FEW MODELS ARE FORECASTING REFLECTIVITY OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS POTENTIAL INSTABILITY BUILDS THIS AFTERNOON.
WE'LL SEE IF ANYTHING DOES FORM IN OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH THE
PROBABILITY OF ANY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS AROUND 1 TO 3
PERCENT IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS SHORT WAVE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARDS OVERNIGHT WITH
CLOUDS AND FOG BUILDING IN ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
INTO THE LOWER 50'S IN MANY OF THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
LOWER 40'S EAST OF THE CASCADES.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL(~15 DEGREES) FOR EARLY OCTOBER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90'S
HERE IN MEDFORD AND PERHAPS A FEW POINTS HITTING 100 DEGREES IN
THE KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY OF SISKIYOU COUNTY. WE'RE FORECASTING 103
AROUND SOMES BAR ON TUESDAY, WHICH IS TYPICALLY THE WARMEST POINT
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SOME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL FALL IF
THIS THERMAL TROUGH AND RIDGE MAINTAIN THE CURRENT STRENGTH.
ON WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 7TH, WE'RE FORECASTING A HIGH OF 89 IN MT
SHASTA CITY AND 92 IN MONTAGUE, WHICH WOULD BREAK THE OLD RECORDS
88 AND 91 BOTH SET IN 2022. THE HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY WITH A FORECASTED HIGH OF 95 IN MEDFORD POTENTIALLY
BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 94 SET BACK IN 1996. IN ADDITION, MT
SHASTA CITY'S OLD RECORD OF 88 SET IN 2022 COULD FALL TO THE
FORECASTED HIGH OF 89, AND MONTAGUE'S OLD RECORD OF 91 COULD FALL
TO THE FORECASTED HIGH OF 93.
THE MODELS WANT TO COOL THINGS OFF ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA. SOMETIMES THE MODELS CAN BE TOO QUICK
TO COOL THINGS OFF WHEN WE'RE UNDER THESE THERMAL TROUGHS DURING
THE SUMMER. IN ANY CASE, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TREND COOLER BY
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS COLD FRONT IS LEANING DRIER, ALTHOUGH WE DID SPOT
A FEW(~3/50) ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PUTTING DOWN SOME LIGHTER RAIN ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SO THERE IS A CHANCE.
BY SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER WITH A 20 DEGREE
DROP OFF BETWEEN THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK AND BY SATURDAY. OVERALL,
SOME BIG CHANCES IN THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ALTHOUGH
NOT IMPACTFUL FOR THE REGION.
-SMITH
MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT MONDAY, OCTOBER 5, 2026...A
PERSISTING THERMAL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP
TO VERY STEEP SEAS DURING MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD. AS TYPICAL IN
THESE PATTERNS, THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE SOUTH
OF CAPE BLANCO, WITH VERY STEEP SEAS EXPECTED FROM GOLD BEACH
SOUTHWARD. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS
AND VERY STEEP SEAS WILL RETURN DAILY DURING THE EVENINGS AND
OVERNIGHT PERIODS. FLUCTUATIONS IN THE THERMAL TROUGH COULD BRING
VERY STEEP SEAS NORTHWARD TO AROUND BANDON LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE UNTIL
LATE WEEK/INTO THE WEEKEND.
A PATTERN CHANGE MAY BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH SOME GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWING INCOMING LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL ARRIVING AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH IN THESES OUTCOMES TO PREDICT THE SEA STATE, BUT AS THIS
IS THE FIRST SIGN OF A POSSIBLY MEANINGFUL LONG-PERIOD SWELL THIS
SEASON, ACKNOWLEDGING IT IS WORTHWHILE.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.
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