574
FXUS66 KMFR 060909
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
209 AM PDT TUE OCT 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* HOT AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
* THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE WE SET NEW HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
* A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT
PUSHING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
MARINE CLOUDS ARE FULLY ENTRENCHED ALONG THE COAST
AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING, WHILE SKIES OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA ARE CLEAR. BY LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, THESE MARINE CLOUDS WILL PUSH BACK TO THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL, THESE WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK, PUSHING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL (15-20 DEGREES) FOR EARLY OCTOBER WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 90'S HERE IN MEDFORD AND PERHAPS A FEW POINTS HITTING 100
DEGREES IN THE KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY OF SISKIYOU COUNTY. SOME
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO BE TIED OR BROKEN
THROUGH THIS TIME.
ON WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 7TH, WE'RE FORECASTING A HIGH OF 89 IN MT
SHASTA CITY AND 92 IN MONTAGUE, WHICH WOULD BREAK THE OLD RECORDS
88 AND 91 BOTH SET IN 2022. THE HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY WITH A FORECASTED HIGH OF 95 IN MEDFORD POTENTIALLY
BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 94 SET BACK IN 1996. IN ADDITION, MT
SHASTA CITY'S OLD RECORD OF 88 SET IN 2022 COULD FALL TO THE
FORECASTED HIGH OF 89, AND MONTAGUE'S OLD RECORD OF 91 COULD FALL
TO THE FORECASTED HIGH OF 93.
A PATTERN CHANGE ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS IN OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY, WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY,
THEN HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER,
BRINING CONDITIONS BACK TOWARDS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT CHANCES ARE
LOW AND CONSTRAINED TO MOSTLY THE COAST AND THE WESTERN/NORTHERN
SLOPES OF THE COASTAL RANGES, SISKIYOUS, AND CASCADES, WHERE
UPSLOPE COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. WHILE GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE EAST SIDE, MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE JUST SHY OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD. EARLY NEXT WEEK, SOME
WARMING IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. SOME MODEL SUITES
DEPICT THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER TROUGH BY MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK,
WHILE OTHERS RETAIN THE RIDGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
TERM.
AVIATION...06/12Z TAFS
LIFR IN FOG/LOW CLOUDS EXISTS ALONG THE
NORTH COAST, INCLUDING NORTH BEND AND REEDSPORT, AND EXTENDS INTO
THE COQUILLE BASIN TO AROUND MYRTLE POINT AND THE LOWER UMPQUA BASIN
WEST OF SCOTTSBURG. AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF LIFR FOG/LOW CLOUDS
EXTENDS FROM AROUND GOLD BEACH SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTH COAST,
INCLUDING BROOKINGS/HARBOR. THESE AREAS SHOULD CLEAR BACK TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT ARE THEN
LIKELY TO RETURN THIS EVENING. SOME AREAS MAY NOT FULLY CLEAR AT
ALL. OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE, VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL INLAND
AREAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MARINE...UPDATED 130 AM PDT TUESDAY, OCTOBER 6, 2026
A
PERSISTING THERMAL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP
TO VERY STEEP SEAS DURING MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD. AS TYPICAL IN
THESE PATTERNS, THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE SOUTH
OF CAPE BLANCO, WITH VERY STEEP SEAS EXPECTED FROM GOLD BEACH
SOUTHWARD. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS
AND VERY STEEP SEAS WILL RETURN DAILY DURING THE EVENINGS AND
OVERNIGHT PERIODS. FLUCTUATIONS IN THE THERMAL TROUGH COULD BRING
VERY STEEP SEAS NORTHWARD TO AROUND BANDON LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE UNTIL LATE
WEEK/INTO THE WEEKEND.
A PATTERN CHANGE MAY BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO SHOW INCOMING LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL ARRIVING AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND, LIKELY ORIGINATING
FROM A STORM CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF JAPAN AND THE ACTIVE
TROPICS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT INCREASING THAT WE WILL SEE THE FIRST
LONG PERIOD SWELLS OF THE SEASON THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.
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